Market Direction and Stock Trends

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Russell 3000 Index (RUA) Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 10, 2018

Analysis for the Week of November 12, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Nov. 9, 2018: Russell 3000 Cash closed today at 163723 and is trading up about 3.44% for the year from last year's closing of 158277. Thus far, we have been trading sideways since the last high made 2 trading days ago at 165933We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed below that low. Nonetheless, the market remains somewhat positive. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

On a broader cyclical perspective, the view of the future is clearly interesting. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2020. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 158277 which is bullish. Furthermore, the market is trading below our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year 764534, which is negative. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 84671 which is 48% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 29 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 2009 from which we have witnessed a 9 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 194002 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Applying our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 167026 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 154736. This provides a 7.35% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 166253 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 159583. This, of course, gives us a narrower trading range of a 4.01%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 163723, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 1.97% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in Russell 3000 Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 153460 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 173607 to 153460. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish reflecting support forming at 165629. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is neutral while the cyclical strength indicator is bearish providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 17th at 174365, which was up 32 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high on the Pi cycle. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of October 29th, which has been a move of.0766%. Distinctly, we have elected one Weekly buy signal to date.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. On the subject of the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for 6 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past session. The last high on the weekly level was 174365, which was created during the week of September 17th. The previous weekly level low was 153460, which formed during the week of October 29th, and only a break of 153460 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 169263 above the market.

Critical support still underlies this market at 159583 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We can see this market has been down for the past month. The last high on the monthly level was 174365, which was created during September. The previous monthly level low was 105645, which formed during February 2016. However, we still remain above key support 154075 on a closing basis.

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