Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[ks1977]

the odds of this happening have been reduced during the past couple of days

I would say that the probability has increased the past few days; after this hit SIAF has to do whatever it can to distribute the cash dividend as planned/indicated.

However, whether the likelyhood has increased from 20% to 25%, or 85% to 90% is a different question... I would say the probabilty is high, but I'm not going to take Mark's bet - instead I increased my position in SIAF (by more than 1000 euro).

If the cash dividend is delayed then the downside is limited (x% of the 22-23 cents I paid, instead of 100% of 1000 euro), and if the cash dividend is not delayed, then the upside is NOT limited (x% of the 22-23 cents I paid, instead of 100% of 1000 euro). Hence the risk/reward (both for loosing AND for winning the bet!) is better with shares in SIAF - at least that's how I see it.

Of more important notice; I'm convinced that they will go through with the cash dividends, but I am NOT convinced that they will not mess it up and hence that it is delayed...