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November & December Performance after a Down October
By: Almanac Trader | November 2, 2018



This past midterm-year October that ended yesterday finished well below expectations and historical averages. DJIA declined 5.1%, S&P 500 dropped 6.9% and NASDAQ was off 9.2%. October’s losses were the seventh worst decline for DJIA since 1950, fourth worst for S&P 500 and fifth worst for NASDAQ since 1971. Historically, November and December market performance did hold up following a negative October.

In the above table every down October for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have been compiled along with their respective performance in November and December. Compared to all Octobers, DJIA and S&P 500 performance improved in November and December when October suffered a decline. DJIA’s average performance in November and December after an October decline improved to 2.3% and 1.9% compared to average gains of 1.6% and 1.7% respectively in all years. S&P 500 in November had a modestly weaker average performance following a down October, but December was notably stronger. NASDAQ’s November performance after an October decline is worse than average, but the results are heavily skewed by double-digit declines in 1973, 2000 and 2008.

Even better and perhaps of greater relevance is the performance of November and December in past midterm years where October was down (shaded in grey and italics in table). All midterm Novembers and Decembers were positive and average performance was nearly double or better.

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