NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[JG36]

Realism comes to the bulls' board:

What are we on the precipice of, success or bankruptcy?

1. I don't get the sense any of the leadership has distinguished themselves with business success to date, only with having been there to get "experience".

2. I do not believe management can achieve what they claim they can in the next year. The timelines just don't make sense, at least based upon past performance.

3. I do agree that the 'cides work, but I'm quite concerned about the cost and scalability of production. What happens if the drugs are almost prohibitively expensive to produce? A projection for the cost of production (cost of goods sold) is something the company has neglected to discuss openly to date. But production has been a huge challenge.

4. Diwan has got this enterprise constructed such that he & TheraCour will get the lion's share of the upside. I'm not convinced that the common shareholders will get ANY of the profits, assuming there are any.

5. There is a reason that the company has not yet licensed shingles. I suspect that reason is somewhat nefarious, in that Diwan is waiting for the optimal time for TheraCour to license the drug to NNVC. The more NNVC money spent on developing the shingles indication, the more value to its license. After a secondary financing, NNVC is likely going to have one shot at going after a drug, and TheraCour will have them over a barrel without a license to shingles.

As far as I am concerned, it appears Diwan has used NNVC almost purely as a vehicle to enrich himself. Yes, he wants NNVC to succeed, but primarily as a source of revenue for TheraCour and himself. All risk has systematically been pushed off onto NNVC, and 80% of the upside (profits under optimal conditions) will be returning to TheraCour in the form of markups for R&D and manufacturing, licensing fees and royalties, and series A shares to the insiders, and the substantial portion of the common stock given to TheraCour and insiders. And if NNVC crashes and burns...oh, well...Diwan needs to find himself a new source of cash.

With upcoming milestone misses and a need for cash, I'm afraid the shares might soon be nearly worthless. And if we go bankrupt, it all goes back to TheraCour and Diwan...with no compensation to common shareholders who have contributed about $100 MM to the effort. Good luck trying to sell the company or its assets in bankruptcy. The deal common shareholders have is so malodorous, any self-respecting investment professional would pass on any part of paying for the privilege of becoming Diwan's future source of income.