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Re: JohnCM post# 587

Monday, 10/22/2018 8:31:23 AM

Monday, October 22, 2018 8:31:23 AM

Post# of 5594
John, I hear what you're saying and I fully understand your viewpoint...I just don't happen to agree with it is all.

I think a lot depends on how a person views the budding cannabis industry (no pun intended). You seem to think of it much like the new computer industry was back in the late 80s or early 90s and these marijuana companies are simply the hardware and software companies of that time. If that is the case then your long-term buy & hold strategy makes perfect sense and is the smart play.

Let me give you a quick example...back in the early 90s I bought $30,000 worth of Microsoft stock. What I would then typically do is sell out-of-the-money covered call options on it...when the expiration date arrived if the stock was below the strike price then I kept the premiums for a fairly nice gain. And if the stock was above the strike price then I also got some appreciation on the stock itself as well as the premiums for an even nicer gain. I did this for a while until I eventually got bored and moved on to other things. Now, if I had just simply stuck all that original stock in a sock drawer and then totally ignored what the market was doing it would now be worth many millions of dollars. Ouch! So obviously in that case your buy & hold approach woulda been far superior to my constantly flitting in and out of the stock, even had I kept at it all these years.

But I don't view the MJ sector like that at all. I believe buying and holding Marijuana ain't gonna be anything like buying and holding Microsoft. I instead look at it much like the dotcom bubble that arose in the late 90s was when almost anybody who bought one of those fancy new gizmo computers started an internet company and investors just threw money at them and as a result valuations reached ridiculous and unjustifiable levels much like they are right now for pot stocks. IMO, a buy & hold strategy for the vast majority of these MJ companies is tantamount to a financial suicide mission.

So as long as the sector is trending upward or at least remains flat as it has been lately I intend to continue swing trading these stocks until it no longer remains profitable to do so and I stop getting good returns. I am trying to at least stick with only those ones which are "undervalued" and I would not be at all surprised if my list of favorite stocks to swing is very similar to your list to hold. I'm not savvy enough to know when the day of reckoning will come but I am pretty sure that it will eventually arrive...might be next year...might be next month...might even be this week for all I know. But hopefully when it does come I will only get slightly singed instead of suffering 3rd degree burns.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/09/16/marijuana-stocks-are-doomed-for-a-colossal-collaps.aspx

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marijuana-investors-may-lose-90-of-their-money-in-canada-so-consider-the-really-big-prize-elsewhere-2018-10-18

Note that these articles were penned by guys who have written some very nice things about certain pot stocks...so it's not like they are alarmists but are just being realists. There's nothing wrong with us having opposing viewpoints...after all, a difference of opinion is what makes a market in the first place, right? If we all agreed it would be mind-numbingly boring.
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