<<<The "25 months" number was more likely a construct of frustration than fact.>>
Of course it was not a construct of fact and more of a guestimate!>
That's a bad estimate given that with near certainty, patients will die in 48 months and the survival distribution is heavy tailed. Say if you are looking at a simple exponential distribution, then half would die at median, half of the remainder at two medians, etc. If you assume median survival is 25 months, there must be many still alive at 48 months. Btw, 16 months is about the placebo medians in 9902a and the Tax trials.
