Time for a T/A Update...
Thing have seem to not quite pan out as expected here, at least by the time frame I was expecting them to do so anyways...
Nevertheless though, I am not panicking, and I still see great reason to be bullish here...
First major concern... The drop off in recent volume... Both a blessing and a curse... Why? The blessing is, that selling is slowing down - seems most who intend to exit have done so now and yet we have seemingly stabilized the price above a critical price level that at least in my opinion we NEED to hold, which is $0.0050... $0.0050 being because that is the previous dips low, and ideally we want to create higher lows with each dip... Preferably not even returning to the same price as a previous dip (we need to show bullish strength)... So the fact we are holding above that line in the sand, and now volume has dropped off, we can probably stop with the dipping and turn things around... I believe PNAT is on the radars of many, and people are just looking for the bottom... I know many big time people here on iHub who are watching it, waiting for it to show that dilution is done for now, and that the price has bottomed out, and probably hoping for news too, etc... I have privately spoken to many who say they love the company but are concerned about the dilution, and plan to re enter when the time is right... I have also been largely watching the Level 2, and I believe the dilution has slowed way down as well... I think we are at the bottom, now we need the buy pressure to push us back up... Here now is where you enter the curse of low volume... Low volume also means no buy pressure - and without returning in a timely manner, we are going to enter into a game of patience... How many of you are prepared to wait a long time if need to? How many will take their exit, cut losses, to pull money out to play elsewhere, or something out of impatience? This is the OTC after all, anything can happen... So if too much time passes before the buyer's show up, it is only a matter of time until the impatient sell off and drop us below the important price of $0.0050 as mentioned above...
We know news is due, and not just to say it's due because we're hopeful... But it's due in the sense that there have been developments we expect updates on, Home Depot for example... And what Home Depot does, Lowe's usually isn't too far behind, so it would not surprise to hear news on us being accepted with Lowe's either... Stuff like that... We know in about a month we are expecting a financial disclosure filing, and even with the last PR about adding a member to our board, there is more occurring behind that then some goofball joining the team... He was added for a reason, not just so PNAT has to split any money additionally... I agree, I wish the company was better with communication... But I take solace in the fact we do have our product in other major retailers like Target... You can visit their website and find Pura Natural products on their websites... So why would they lie about Home Depot? I see no reason for that... Couple that with the Trademark approval recently, etc., I can see how that very easily could be the hold up - notice if you look around, you don't really find the Grease Beast Product much of anywhere, but you do find their other products everywhere they claim you'd find them... So I wouldn't be surprised to learn that the hold up was the trademarking all along... So I do expect news on this soon given the trademark was approved...
SPORTYNORTY by the way I believe to be a genuine person on here... I have exchanged multiple private discussions with him, nothing too in depth, but I know a little about how he plays his hand and his operation though these talks... I have nothing to criticize about him at all, and believe he did in depth research here regarding this Home Depot deal, etc., and he found that the deal was bigger than originally expected - which was the reason for some of the excessive dilution, to fund supply to supply the contract, etc... That folks is what is called GOOD DILUTION... It's hard to stomach when it happens, and it hurts the share price all the same in the short term... But good dilution is dilution that will net you more revenue in the future... Something like diluting to fund manufacturing a product you plan to sell for a profit, the profit will be increased future revenue, and adds to your company's bottom line... That's a good thing!!! Bad dilution is dilution that pays salaries, or pays the bills to keep the lights on... It keeps the company alive for now, but you get nothing much more out of it in return... That's the dilution you don't want... I am not so worried about company executives lining their pockets, there isn't a lot of room right now for them to do so with the debt the company has... But that debt is the more obvious concern here, especially if you consider what the their financial disclosure filings say about it... That they are in default and owe more than they can ultimately pony up right now - should the note holders call it due, the company could be absolved and liquidated... Very damning language, but if that were going to happen, I'd expect it to have already done so at this point... To be honest, you can find equally damning statements in 99.99999% of the OTC financial disclosures around the market... That's alarming, but that's ultimately why this is a sub penny stock and not trading on the S&P 500 after all... You have to keep everything in perspective, if you can't stomach such things then you should not be playing with OTC stocks... They're penny stocks for a reason, and that's not because they're doing so amazingly great already... Investing in a company is not about where the company is right now, but rather investing in the potential of where it can be in the future... And PNAT has potential... That's why you're here... It is all about forward looking... If they manage to get this Grease Beast stuff off the ground, and I don't see why they won't, then expect this stock to gain wings fast... You have to do your DD for yourself to mitigate your own risks, but as for me, I am comfortable here...
Now there was heavy dilution throughout the 1st half of September, and about mid September it stopped, and since it has continued a little, but at a slow rate... So I don't know what the current shares outstanding count is, I'd bet somewhere just above 300 million in my opinion... Either way though, that's really not a lot... In perspective, as of September 1st we were just above 150 million shares outstanding, so to be fair the shares outstanding count has pretty much doubled, and based on percentage wise, that's a significant increase... But in perspective, it's mostly behind us now, and our shares outstanding count is still considerably low still... That even said, the shares authorized is still 500 million, so unless that get's increased, I have no reason to believe the shares outstanding will go above 500 million, which is still considerably low all and all... However the risks associated with this are 1.) an increase of the shares authorized can occur, and ultimately would only mean 1 thing... Intentions to dilute... or 2.) a Reverse Split can occur especially if and when the shares outstanding maxes the shares authorized... I have very little experience with reverse splits personally, I've just never been in a company that's done one... Sometimes they are done for good reasons... But in the scenario described up above, that would be a less than ideal scenario... At 300 million shares outstanding roughly right now (even by their latest report since October 1st, 2018) we are utilizing 60% of the shares authorized... If that number starts to get much higher the company may be forced to explore increasing the authorized shares or a reverse split... But we for now have a buffer to keep us from actively worrying about that today and now... We'll get an update hopefully no later than around November 20th, 2018 on the share structure as that's about when I'd expect PNAT to file their next financial disclosure... Otherwise they seem to update the OTCMarkets website's reporting by the 1st of every month... For now though 300, even 500 million is still considered low for this level...
So that's the fundamentals... Now onto the technicals...
The best technical news is that we as of now are holding the line in the sand at $0.0050, the price of the previous dip's low... Ideally we want to form higher lows and not lower lows... So as of now we are holding a higher low with each dip... That's huge... We are threatening to fall below that price, but have done so now for a week or 2 it seems, and yet we're holding... As mentioned above, the volume lately has been a blessing and a curse, but I suspect we will hold the line... One thing I notice is, if you watch the level 2 data during the open market hours, you will see 2 known dilutor market makers on the BID at $0.0050... As long as they're on the BID, that's a good thing - you cannot dilute from the BID... Only the ASK, dilution means selling shares that don't exist into existence... You have to sell them at the ASK, it makes no sense to buy them at the BID unless the dilutor is selling them to the bidder, but then they wouldn't be the bidder - they'd be the seller... So a dilution market maker on the ASK means something else... Either they represent a buyer, or they represent the company itself or something... I believe they're there to help hold the share price above $0.0050... I think the agree on the significance of holding the chart above $0.0050 like I explained above... Now the size of their BID share blocks are hidden, I only see 10,000 - but those 10,000 share blocks are usually endless share blocks that can be hit repeatedly and not reduce or go away until all the hidden shares are bought up... So they can be anywhere from 10,000 to infinity... Who knows what they are - but I like that they're on the BID, makes me feel like we are working with them now and not against them... And perhaps they're just there to flip for profit, it wouldn't surprise me to learn that they are short sellers who shorted the stock up above - perhaps short selling all along and not further diluting as once thought, and that is their buy to cover price at $0.0050... Either case I am watching them, they are CFGN and AEXG I think it was... As for the ASK, I don't see any dilution market makers really until $0.01 where MAXM sits, and then CFGN at $0.015... But they all an move around at any time, and furthermore its hard to differentiate what they're doing, shorting, diluting, and sometimes it can be possible they're just another trader like you or I... But it's the endless hidden share blocks that catch my attention when I think dilution could be occurring... Since mid September however, I have really seen minimal activity from these market markers... Some activity yes, but not a ton in the grand scheme of things...
So again... The best thing going for us is that we're holding $0.0050... Again that's the price of the previous dips low, with a desire to create higher lows, IE not fall to or below $0.0050 as a previous low...
So far we have done a great job of building higher lows... $0.0032, then $0.0047, then $0.0050, and so far since the low of $0.0054... That's bullish...
the next bullish thing is the 50 day Moving Average is leveled out from a drastic fall, and is now actually up ticking some... Currently it sits at $0.0071, which is up 2 ticks from its bottom so far of $0.0069 that occurred on 9/28/2018... The 50 period Moving Average, in this case being read from a daily chart, IE the 50 day Moving Average is the moving average that defines the chart's overall trend... If it is moving upwards, the chart is said to be trending bullishly... If it is moving downwards, it is trending bearishly... If sideways, the chart is said to be trading within a range or consolidating... I'd say now we're best classified as consolidating or trading in a range, and if you look at the recent price action, that's a true and fair statement... The up ticking is good though... And solid consolidation here with such strong volume of recent really implies we reached a bottom in the price action... The up ticking of the 50 day Moving Average is a bullish signal currently, and typically when the moving average is moving upwards, it acts greater as support than resistance when encountered by the price be it from above or below... So in theory the resistance should be lesser than the support when we cross that bridge, as of now anyways... That said, because the price sits below the 50 day Moving Average, the 50 day Moving Average is currently going to act as resistance, and also unless we can get back above it soon enough, it could begin to down tick again... We'll see what happens... Let everything progress, but for now, the rule is never give up on a rising 50 day Moving Average...
On to the next thing of significance... The 100 day Moving Average - which is still falling, but the rate at which it is doing so is reducing... It too is starting to level out... Think of it like this, the 50 day Moving Average began to level out around 30 days ago or so... And that's the 50 day Moving Average... The 100 day Moving Average, which is double toe 50 day Moving Average, will take twice as long... BUT, consider that as the 50 day Moving average is leveling out, it doesn't happen instantaneously... IE it took 50 days worth of price action to equal 1 day of leveling out... So what I am trying to so is, if it took the 50 day Moving Average 50 days, then those 50 days already occurred and roughly 30 days ago... IE we're 80 days roughly into the 100 day Moving Average leveling out... Which takes 100 days... So it is not far from leveling out and turning upwards depending on future price action.... In the mean time, the 50 day Moving Average is up ticking while the 100 day Moving Average is down ticking, the 2 are on a collision course with the 50 day Moving Average set to cross above the 100 day Moving Average... This is known as a Golden Cross and is a very bullish signal - though normally it is a reactive event to previous price action, so it would be around this time frame something bullish should occur... And if we get a good bullish pop, then the 50 day Moving Average should take a sharp turn upwards, and would also effect the 100 day Average by half as much as well in a bullish manner... Ultimately we'd like to see both of these start turning upwards, with the 50 day Moving Average above the 100 day Moving Average...
It however is/ was unfortunate that we did not hold above the 50 day Moving Average support, but that isn't a deal breaker.... So again it is now acting as resistance, and the 100 day Moving Average has also been our greatest resistance thus far... But as these begin to turn upwards, their resistance should weaken.... Allowing for them to easily be crossed above and closed above... Then the next target is the 200 day Moving Average and above.... The 200 day Moving Average is also slowly starting to level off or reduce at the rate its falling...
All of this if for nothing else, is a sign of a bottom in the price action.... We should take a turn upwards soon...
Momentum indications are kind of all over the board, but if you noticed the last 3 or so days we closed at the same price ($0.006) and are holding roughly the same low of $0.0054 or higher... PSAR is bearish now, but that isn't a major concern of mine right now...
Lastly, I want to discuss the candlestick patterns... Today we formed 3 bullish candlestick patterns in one... Firstly, a doji at nearly the bottom of a downtrend, IE a reversal signature... Second, we formed a tweezer bottoms, again at the bottom of a downtrend, again, a bullish reversal signal... And third, we formed a bullish harami... That's all on the daily chart... On the weekly chart we are currently forming a doji at the bottom of a downtrend, again a bullish reversal signal... All of this really makes me think we should see a huge spike very soon in the price for the bulls... Don't be shocked if tomorrow ends up being somewhat of a dud, and don't be disappointed - because we need tomorrow to be a dud for it to form the doji on the weekly chart... We want to close tomorrow as close to $0.0061 as possible for that reason.... Though I would never say a green day or even an extremely green day is bad... I would say based on this alone we are due for some bullish action soon... And we are equally due for news as mentioned above... Funny how chart indications and news and fundamentals, completely separate concepts often seem to go hand in hand when they occur...
again, for me... The key thing is holding above $0.0050... Which also according to the Level 2, there is a ton of support around there as well...
We need buy pressure again!!!
We have currently compromised the trendline I was following for some time now, but not by a great deal, it'd take no time at all to pop back into that trend and follow it higher... We're still sitting outside of the ominous downtrending channel, so that's good.... Sometimes support is temporarily broken purposefully just before a bullish explosion to shake the tree... Look up the concept behind a bear trap or a bull trap... We're barely compromising the trendline with a ton of bullish indications... I am not worried one bit right now... The fact the price is at least holding stable is a good sign....
There is a lot to like, some concern, and some to dislike... But all and all I feel comfortable and confident here for the time being... I am holding strong with a pretty sizable position... And I am still targeting the 200 day Moving Average to $0.05 as a target price...
Compare our chart to that of DIRV or YECO... The patterns, the moving averages and price action surrounding them, etc...
We sill have a bullish trend reversal pattern in play here... I probably would stop calling it a Double Bottom and more so a Triple Bottom now though... Infact up above I listed bottoms as being $0.0032, $0.0047, $0.0050, and now $0.0054 so far... I am still keeping an eye on this...
Bottom line is, I think it is easy to say we hit a bottom somewhere around this price, and should soon turn it back upwards again... What was a strong downtrend has convincingly flat lined with a hint of an uptrend forming now.... The lack of volume anywhere else on the chart until the last few months really shows this to be likely the case...
