Genius Brands International Inc (GNUS)

[rickn23]

I think the odds are long, but, not unachievable.

The "Llama Llama" books sell in the million each range, so there are enough customers to buy a million DVD sets. But, about half the households in the US have access to Netflix (why buy the DVD?), all "Llama Llama customers might be Netflix customers. I'm, also, not entirely sure Netflix would pay (or have to pay) a lot to retain VOD rights to season 1, either. More "Llama Llama" merchandise is showing up on Amazon, though.

"Rainbow Rangers" would have to be a big hit. I'm assuming VOD services (Amazon Prime, Netflix, etc) would pick it up, to account for the high DVD/VOD revenue and merchandising. Unless "Rainbow Rangers" is a hit, on a phenomenal level (it becomes news worth and doesn't need much marketing), we won't know anything until the 2019 Q4 report (out at the end of March 2020), most of the revenue would be generated in Q4 (VOD revenue might be pushed out to Q1/2 2020).

You might want to check out the DVD sales numbers for similar children's animated shows. I doubt any are in the million set range.

The fact that GNUS had to issue convertible debt to cover some production costs of a possible second season of "Rainbow Rangers" doesn't fill me with confidence. Andy hiding the fact that convertible debt was being issued on the prior day's conference call lowers my confidence in him.