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Wednesday, October 17, 2018 8:08:52 AM
Top Sectors to Consider For the “Best Six Months”
By: Almanac Trader | October 17, 2018
For 52 years the new edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac has been released in the fourth quarter of the year. And for the past seventeen years we have been preparing Almanac Investor readers for the annual October buying spree. This year will be no exception, but before delving into October’s seasonalities, let’s do a quick review for new and seasoned followers alike.
Every year while preparing the annual Almanac, we revisit and analyze our sector seasonalities (STA 2019 pages 92, 94 and 96) in depth in order to make adjustments for any new or developing trends. There have been a few minor revisions made to our Sector Seasonalities table in recent years, but for the most part, sector seasonality has been reasonably on track since September 2009 with many sectors producing the bulk of their annual gains during their traditionally favorable periods. Years of sector research allows us to specify whether the seasonality starts or finishes in the beginning third (B), middle third (M) or last third (E) of the month based upon the number of trading days in the month.
Part of the 2019 Almanac table appears above. Keen observers and long-time readers may note the absence of several indices. Indices that no longer appear are no longer being calculated or are not readily available in the public domain. In the place of discontinued indices we have added S&P Sector indices. Both long and short trade opportunities are researched and the most statistically viable appear below. Because these indexes are not directly tradable, highly correlated exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are typically chosen to execute trades. Performance over the last 5-, 10- and 15-year time periods is included. We prefer to focus on the 15-year average performance as this period has sufficient data to be seasonally significant.
These entry and exit points will be the basis for our seasonal trades over the coming year. They are guidelines, as we generally look to enter new positions before the start of the favorable period and exit before its end. Occasionally a trade is closed out well in advance of the seasonality’s end. An out-sized advance may trigger a trade at the suggested auto-sell price (a price target based upon past historical performance of the specific seasonality) or should strength fail to materialize, a stop loss could be reached.
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• DiscoverGold
By: Almanac Trader | October 17, 2018
For 52 years the new edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac has been released in the fourth quarter of the year. And for the past seventeen years we have been preparing Almanac Investor readers for the annual October buying spree. This year will be no exception, but before delving into October’s seasonalities, let’s do a quick review for new and seasoned followers alike.
Every year while preparing the annual Almanac, we revisit and analyze our sector seasonalities (STA 2019 pages 92, 94 and 96) in depth in order to make adjustments for any new or developing trends. There have been a few minor revisions made to our Sector Seasonalities table in recent years, but for the most part, sector seasonality has been reasonably on track since September 2009 with many sectors producing the bulk of their annual gains during their traditionally favorable periods. Years of sector research allows us to specify whether the seasonality starts or finishes in the beginning third (B), middle third (M) or last third (E) of the month based upon the number of trading days in the month.
Part of the 2019 Almanac table appears above. Keen observers and long-time readers may note the absence of several indices. Indices that no longer appear are no longer being calculated or are not readily available in the public domain. In the place of discontinued indices we have added S&P Sector indices. Both long and short trade opportunities are researched and the most statistically viable appear below. Because these indexes are not directly tradable, highly correlated exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are typically chosen to execute trades. Performance over the last 5-, 10- and 15-year time periods is included. We prefer to focus on the 15-year average performance as this period has sufficient data to be seasonally significant.
These entry and exit points will be the basis for our seasonal trades over the coming year. They are guidelines, as we generally look to enter new positions before the start of the favorable period and exit before its end. Occasionally a trade is closed out well in advance of the seasonality’s end. An out-sized advance may trigger a trade at the suggested auto-sell price (a price target based upon past historical performance of the specific seasonality) or should strength fail to materialize, a stop loss could be reached.
Read More »»»
• DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
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