Thanks Rancherho, I just responded to your IV post.
Now, what Gametheory on this board said make a lot more sense, confirmed by io_io that one interim analysis will be done in 2007. But when and what's the likelihood of success?
Most likely it will be done after FDA approval. Assuming what I projected correct (if my assumptions are wrong, the numbers could be wrong), but for the sake of argument, there seems to be concensus that the target event goal is probably in the low 60%, although I think it could be lower. Nonetheless, suppose there would be 200 events at end of June 2007, the information fraction would be 0.67, teh OBF 2-sided alpha would be 0.012, at a hazard ratio of 1.8 (per the pooled cox regression), the probability of terminating early is 95% and declare success.
I have to slap myself to remind me not to get ahead of myself. But wow, that's scary.
