Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[ks1977]

I wouldn't be surprised if some people are willing to sell their trw-shares much below 3,4usd

If it is only current SIAF-shareholders that will be able to trade TRW-shares between themselves, then I don't expect there to be much of a market. Most of us already have the amount we want, and now that we know the record date and payment date it will be better to buy SIAF-shares and get the <0.4TRW/SIAF than to buy TRW-shares post distribution.

Hence I expect there to be no trading whatsoever (in 2018 and H1/19) or very low prices of TRW. Assuming 0.4TRW/SIAF you have to pay $1 to get 2.5 SIAF and hence 1 TRW, but who would rather wait till post-distribution to buy TRW-shares, and who would be very eager to dump their TRW-shares way below $1? I guess some people will be happy to sell part of their TRW-shares for $1 (then their corresponding 2.5 SIAF-shares would have been for free), but I struggle to see any buyers.

If they release the TRW-reports, we have an pre-IPO, TRW-loan and/or good and detailed information of TRW's progress, then we might see some trading in H2/19 and later (less uncertainty = higher price). If not, then we need to get closer to a listing before people might be interested in trading TRW-shares.

It will be an interesting 2-3 years ahead of us, that's for sure!