S&P 500 - The Long-Term Picture for Monday , October 15, 2018 https://investorshub.advfn.com/uicon/155361.png?cb=636663556275030000 _________________________________________________________________ https://caldaro.wordpress.com/ Weekend Update Posted on October 06, 2018 _________________________________________________________________ The Kick-Off Months in the OTC - Jan/Feb - Jun/Jul https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=137701925 ____________________________________________________________ LONG TERM: Uptrend A New Bull Market - Primary III Underway We are currently expecting SPX 3,053 https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p83353239257&a=128596702&r=538 ____________________________________________________________ In March 2009 the great recession and SC2 ended . From that low, a new 70-80 year SC3 began. The first bull market of SC3 was 2009-2015, and first bear market 2015-2016. We have labeled them as Primary waves I and II . The bull market currently underway is part of Primary III. The US market is currently in a long Cycle wave 1 of the new Super cycle. Each of these bullish cycle waves are created by five Primary waves. Waves within waves, greater to lesser: Super cycle, Cycle, Primary, Major, etc. https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p39807715936&a=336994741&r=697 ________________________________________________________________ From the early 2009 low the market unfolded in a 6-year bull market until mid-2015. We labeled that Primary I of Cycle 1. Then there was a short bear market into early 2016, which we labeled Primary II . From that low a Primary III bull market began. Historically, third Primary waves, in long cycle waves, are 15+ years in length. This suggests the current bull market is only Major wave 1 of Primary III, as labeled. Our target for the current bull market, since mid-2016, has been SPX 3053 by 2018 https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p39807715936&a=336994741&r=697 ________________________________________________________________ Longer term the 2016 Major wave 1 bull market continues. Four of the five Intermediate waves that create a Major wave bull market have already completed. Intermediate waves i and ii ending in the spring of 2016, and Intermediate waves iii and iv ending in the early-spring of 2018. Int. wave i was simple, and Int. iii subdivided into five Minor waves. Int. wave ii was an irregular zigzag, and Int. iv was a flat. A nice and clear pattern until the choppiness in recent months. Nonetheless, we’re still looking for SPX 3053 by 2018+. https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p39807715936&a=336994741&r=697 ________________________________________________________________ In January 2018, Intermediate wave iii, (Minor wave 5) counting it as Major wave 1 completed, and an Intermediate wave iv correction began. We are still expecting at least one more uptrend , and series of New all-time highs . ___________________________________________________________ https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p39807715936&a=336994741&r=697 ____________________________________________________________ http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=m1&rev=636366366890925383 http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p83353239257&a=128596702&r=538 http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=2009-01-01&en=today&id=p39807715936&a=336994741&r=697 http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&cot=138741,13874A&p=m1&rev=636366366890925383 https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24SPX&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=3&id=p64474151622&a=224249946&r=597 Since 1929 there have been 13 bull markets http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116564037 LONG TERM: uptrend This week let’s look at the big picture. The very big picture. While published data on the US stock market only began in the year 1885, we have been able to piece together, using secular Saeculum cycles and economic cycles, how the US market would have looked from the early 1700’s. As an emerging growth economy the US would have not looked anything like the European markets that do have stock market data going back that far. That data was not considered. From around the year 1700 to 1929 the US experienced a 200+ year grand super cycle bull market GSC 1 The 1929-1932 crash, when the stock market lost nearly 90% of its value, ended GSC 2 While short in time the crash made up for it in price damage. A GSC 3 bull market began at that 1932 low. Within GSC 1 there were five super cycles, approximately: SC1 1700-1770 SC2 1770-1776 SC3 1776-1850 SC4 1850-1857 SC5 1857-1929 Within the current GSC 3 there have been two completed super cycles, with the third underway: SC1 1932-2007 SC2 2007-2009 SC3 2009-xxxx Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years, this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080 . Within each super cycle bull market there are five Cycle waves. SC1 of GSC 3 divided as follows: C1 1932-1937 C2 1937-1942 C3 1942-1973 C4 1973-1974 C5 1974-2007 Notice the Cycle wave bull markets can be as short as 5 years or as long as 30+ years. Also note, no matter the wave degree the bear markets are always much shorter in time than the bull markets. https://caldaro.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/gsc3.png?w=640&h=528 Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years, this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080 . http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83822707561 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43140782454 http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1 http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=d1