Hi Bigworld, Yes, at almost 10 years the bull market can't go on forever. Best to be on the cautious side for sure.
My 25% long allocation seems pretty tame compared to the old days. But looking back, in spite of the biggest bull market in history, I still managed to lose money. That's hard to do, but it came down to way too much trading and not having the discipline of an asset allocation model.
There's an old silicon valley saying that goes - 'Maintaining a computer network in the future will only require 1 man and 1 dog. The man is there to feed the dog, and the dog is there to keep the man away from the computer network'.
The 'dog' for me is the asset allocation model, which strictly limits trading (no more than 5%). Not too exciting, but better than the alternative of losing money.
