Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[ks1977]

You can probably forget about receiving 1$ for a Siaf share during November

By November we should have the ex date for the cash dividend, SIAF should be cash-flow positive, and dilution should have ended. Should, should and should that is - nothing is certain with SIAF.

I would strongly advice against being dependent on an exit-opportunity post distribution though (and maybe also being dependent on an exit-opportunity before the distribution). We should prepare ourselves for the possibility of having to sit and hold both the TRW-shares and the SIAF-shares for at least 2-3 years. And then it can be a pleasant bonus if an exit-opportunity opens up before that.

I hope RD, aandt and others who need an (partial) exit are able to get one (and if the ex date for the cash dividend is set prior to the distribution, then the chances for that increases - and maybe the need for an exit expires all together?), but between Solomon messing things up, lies being spread all over the internet, and Market Makers refusing to let Merkur decide the PPS, one should not buy more shares than one can hold "forever".

With regards to the strategy of buying post-distribution that is a bigger gamble than buying before, but it can work (it can also back-fire since the distribution would show Solomon's true intentions and is a fulfillment of his biggest promise so far, hence the PPS could trade higher post-distribution than it is doing at the moment). In this scenario you will not hold any TRW-shares directly and will be very prone to possible dilution (although that will end if SIAF does become cash-flow positive mid/late Q4), so you might not get a fair value on the SIAF-shares before TRW is listed anyways (and then SIAF should have a holding-company discount anyways)