Okay, I finished my updated number-crunching and then searched for any analyst guidance. Came across a Canacord Genuity guidance dated May 30, 2018:
Revenue and Adj. EBITDA in FY2018 at $12.9 million and negative $576,000
Revenue and Adj. EBITDA for FY2019 at $62.6 million and $18.4 million
Might be a bit dated, but the analysts get info from the company that we aren't always privy to. I think Emblem probably quit giving out any type of guidance so we have no recent analyst predictions. I doubt it the Thompson Reuters forecasts have been updated recently. They are usually done after fiscal year earnings come out.
I came up with $78M revenue and $28M EBITDA for 2019 and I thought I was conservative when it came to limited revenue from Greenspace Brands and any revenue an Acnos partnership may see in Germany. While both will probably see some 2019 revenue, I am viewing that as gravy and not really counting it until 2020. I am actually quite pleased to not be too out of line compared to the Canacord Genuity numbers as they didn't have the benefit of pricing in the Aphria deal. I believe my numbers are very valid.
I am using 140M shares outstanding by the end of 2019 which gives us EBITDA of 20 cents a share. Pick a P/E you think is justified. We certainly aren't looking at a mature industry number of 10 to 15 for a P/E. 20 is a minimum under these circumstances and 30 is not unreasonable. You often see ridiculous P/Es at 100 or more when the growth is rapid. If we stay to a "reasonable" range of 20 to 30, we get a price per share of $4 - $6 or a market cap of $560M - $840M which brings us back to the $600M - $800M range I have been predicting for 2019.
That is how it works by the numbers. You don't choose a market cap and work it back. You do your best to predict revenue and EBITDA and then the numbers don't lie. No pie in the sky here. Very attainable numbers WITHOUT any big positive surprises.
AI
