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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 6, 2018

Analysis for the Week of October 8, 2018

OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Oct. 5, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 288557 and is trading up about 7.92% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 2 days. On a broader perspective, this market has been trading down overall for the past 10 days, since the high established Fri. Sep. 21, 2018 following the high established Wed. Oct. 3, 2018. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed lower. Nonetheless, the market remains rather weak. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2019. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 267361 which is bullish. Furthermore, the market is trading below our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year 1793519, which is negative. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 142618 which is 50% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 67 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 1974 from which we have witnessed a 44 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 290019 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 285061. This provides a 1.70% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 319947 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 268235. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 16%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 288557, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.

A possible change in trend appears due come February 2019 in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during September. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 294091 but closed on the positive side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 294091 to 286412. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 290676. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bearish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 17th at 294091, which was up 32 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. This was a key week for at least a temporary high on the Pi cycle. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 290328. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.

Overall, looking at the weekly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 34 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th. The last high on the weekly level was 294091, which was created during the week of September 17th.

Critical support still underlies this market at 268235 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 279634 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 294091, which was created during September.

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