Biotech Values

[RockRat]

RE VK5211: The main issue, from an investment standpoint, is whether or not they can partner this based on existing data, since that is their stated strategy. I agree LBM isn't an approvable endpoint. They'd likely require direct fracture data for approval, at least in the first indication. Perhaps subsequent studies can employ BMD. As such, we have to look at the preclinical data wrt effects on bone. Here it is:

LGD-4033 builds muscle and bone with reduced prostate activity and may be beneficial in age-related frailty

Not sure why you're focused on durability of anabolic response. Nobody expected that.

As for the walk test, the tested population was pretty heterogeneous, so in a small study the variance is going to be too much to extrapolate benefit with any degree of certainty. I don't know what a "PRO" is in this context. Surrogate endpoint? REMS?

Completely agree more data would be helpful. Isn't it always? Safety looks fairly clean, and dosing to sustain the anabolic effect looks possible at this stage, with prophylaxis still on the table. So I think it is too soon to read the tea leaves and call 5211 a definitive bust. It's definitely got plenty of risk of good money after bad, based on what we know now, so I'd be interested in having them partner the program, even if they don't get a big upfront. If they post more data before then, we can revisit.

Anyhow, I think the risk of the program just got priced in, and then some, so I've sold a couple of rounds of puts.

Regards, RockRat