Monday, October 30, 2006 1:22:21 PM
The only reason Organon has come back on to the screen--beyond CX717's problems--is that Organon is --at least in theory-- going to have to change. The passive-neglect that has resulted from being a component of a paint and coatings company should be different when they are spun-off. And asenapine's problems are going to really throw a wrench into those spinoff aspirations. Akzo could just decide to not go with the IPO, in which case, Organon will probably remain very unattractive (though they claim they are going to continue with that plan). But if they decide to stick with the IPO, and recognize the value of dressing Organon up via an Ampakine joint venture--wherein they are willing to share control (a big difference from before) over development: that would not be 'doing Organon again'.
Is this possible? Maybe not. Organon doesnt yet know what Pfizer will with the asenapine partnership (I think there's a good chance they'll dump it, but Organon will probably try to keep it going). You still have to wait for the Organon people to come to grips with a new entrepeneurial reality, not depending upon Akzo, or upon Pfizer, to make things OK.
It is worth checking on--and I have made that point directly. If Organon wants the same kind of backend-loaded, 'we'll take all the time we need and pay you someday' approach that they did the first time through--the hell with them. But circumstances are different, and I can imagine a joint venture that could benefit everyone. Whether Organon will see it similarly--is probably...improbable.
NeuroInvestment
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