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Re: 12yearplan post# 51236

Tuesday, 10/02/2018 10:39:34 AM

Tuesday, October 02, 2018 10:39:34 AM

Post# of 54376
In order for Trump's tax cuts to not increase the deficit, GDP has to hit 3% every quarter for the next 10 years.

We'll have to see just how magical that wand is.

What Are the Act’s Projected Budgetary Effects?
To construct its baseline budget projections, CBO incorporated the effects of the tax act, taking into account economic feedback—that is, the ways in which the act is likely to affect the economy and in turn affect the budget. Doing so raised the 11-year projection of the cumulative primary deficit (that is, the deficit excluding the costs of servicing the debt) by $1.3 trillion and raised projected debt-service costs by roughly $600 billion. The act therefore increases the total projected deficit over the 2018–2028 period by about $1.9 trillion.

Before taking economic feedback into account, CBO estimated that the tax act would increase the primary deficit by $1.8 trillion and debt-service costs by roughly $450 billion. The feedback is estimated to lower the cumulative primary deficit by about $550 billion, mostly because the act is projected to increase taxable income and thus push tax revenues up. And that feedback raises projected debt-service costs, because even though the reduction in primary deficits means that less borrowing is necessary, the act is expected to result in higher interest rates on debt, which are projected to more than offset the effects on debt-service costs of the smaller debt. On net, economic feedback from the act raises debt-service costs in CBO’s projections by about $100 billion.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53787

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