If the company refuses to give an overview and details of TRW operations then I will have to do it.
Let's start by saying that TRW will almost certainly make a profit close to $35M this year, up from $32M last year. Not so bad in a year when shrimp prices have hit rock bottom globally. They are also doing a lot of research at AF4, AF2 and AF1 (experimental farm).
Now let's take a look at shrimp. If they don't grow any indoor then the output is roughly 600 MT per quarter or 2,400 MT annually. Roughly 800 MT comes from selling baby shrimp in different sizes (which I presume is what the indoor farm at AF3 for, from hatchery to nursery). Which leaves 1,600 MT. Divided by roughly 600 mu of 2G ODRAS gives a yield of 40 MT/hectare for 2G ODRAS. The same yield as Guolian's greenhouses. Which makes sense because they are not using clean water systems. The output for 3G ODRAS could be anywhere between 80 MT and 200 MT per hectare. And more expensive to build.
Here's what I don't know.
1) it seems that 3G ODRAS farm 1 in Yangjiang is not owned by TRW. I think Tony said that TRW will "contract" it in March 2019.
2) 3G ODRAS farm 2 in Shenwan may very well add 800 MT to the mix going forward.
3) Has the 800 mu at AF4 been converted to 2G ODRAS or not? The latest filing suggests it has. This could mean another 2,000 MT if they plan to grow shrimp there.
4) Will they convert 350 mu to 3G ODRAS in Shenwan? I think so. This is the cash flow they are expecting from AF3 by Q4.
5) What the heck is going on with cooperatives. Although it doesn't take a genius to figure out that these kind of ventures progress very slowly. Right, Solomon? I said, slowly.
Yes, AF4 is not producing much at the moment. But the rest is, or should. And is looking pretty good IMO.
The other thing we should note is, if shrimp prices go up by a dollar then that's a dollar net gain for SIAF/TRW. At 2,400 MT that's $2.4M.
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