Avita Medical Ltd (RCEL)

[tdeck]

Simple explanation to difference in F and Y is AVMXY is 20 shares of AVMXF or in Australia AVH stock, this gets many confused when looking at OTC markets they see the OS and think damn, well it is wrong its wrong in two aspects. First the number is off as the OS is 1,277,378,325 divide that by 20 and that comes to $AVMXY 63,868,916 outstanding shares for both US and Australian market.

But, in Australia there has remained a core group of institutions and funds that have held roughly 55-60% of the shares for at least 3 years. The large holders of record in Australia are in well higher than we are here and have been in for a while and its safe to say they waited 3 years or more and are waiting for the promised land, wouldn't you? So one can take a safe guess the float is 32 mil or so of AVMXY which includes all Australian shares and US shares.

This is just getting started it will add a zero at least before its done, how long til then, no clue the cake just got in the oven haven't any idea the bake time but its starting to rise. Contracts with a lot of zeros the 20K additional order from Barda its gone running like a rabbit.


The OS jumped this year when the new facility was set up and all the costs that go with it for the manufacture of the ReCell units. This included the lease for a manufacturing facility/warehouse, materials, sales staff in the US, and labor and distribution for ReCell. As well as costs of finishing the trials etc.

Avita used to have them manufactured by another company, that company moved out of state and Avita knowing FDA approval was imminent set up their own manufacturing facility and commenced operations in July 2018. The first procurement in the contract is for BARDA of 5000 units with an option to be first in line for another 20,0000 I believe this was to begin as soon as FDA approval came in. One would expect there are already a load ready to go, having been stockpiled knowing that FDA approval was coming ltae in the 3rd quarter Sept. and here we are.

There are accumulated losses to the stock in as such the company issued more shares over the years, many in fact which is not uncommon in Biotech stocks as you know. Accumulated losses are 120+ mil but not debt that is hiding out there so to speak.

There were cash equivalents held at 30 June 2018 was $14,825,532.

Just in numbers Avita will increase in $$ numbers this year I would not want to guess, as one can imagine it will be substantial. The US is a large place and with 5-20K units going to BARDA, let alone the burn centers and hospitals in the US alone, lets not forget Military and for other countries that the US gives medical aid to where it would be useful, especially the Middle East where they unfortunately deal with blasts etc, no reason to go into detail we all know.

I couldn't even fathom I would be guessing at best, but, its gonna be a great year. This isn't one of those hyped up penny deals where some paid for PR mentions Wall Mart or Coca Cola or Apple and hypes it as being the next MSFT or AMZN stock. This is all reality, BARDA and Avita got in bed together and have been working hand in hand to get this done for 2 years+ so one can conservatively guess how good this FDA approval is, the Govt and hospitals have been waiting orders are there and now its on.

It is a safe bet at this price I will leave it at that the sales revenue this year will without a doubt add a zero to last years number of 1,652,161 which was up near half a million from the previous year and that did not include FDA. I think that's enough on that.

Latest filing is here from June 30

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/AVMXY/disclosure

You cannot go wrong and neither can your family, I say that in all sincerity and after one weighs everything and looks into everything themselves I think it will be easy enough to decide.

I would spend spare time today and tomorrow looking into any and everything I can before making a decision as I would with any investment, if I can point you in the right direction for addtional info I will just ask.

I would suggest you also go to their website and review not only ReCell for burns but what they are testing now which is the use of ReCell other other uses like this one done in march

Necrotizing Fasciitis

March 22, 2018. Maricopa Integrated Health System (MIHS) Burn Center, Phoenix, Arizona held a press conference to discuss the ongoing results of using ReCell to treat a woman with flesh-eating bacteria also known as Necrotizing Faciitis. Dr. Kevin Foster of the Arizona Burn Center called the results a "miracle". ABC 15 Arizona.

It was on Avitas Wikipedia page, yes Avita and Dr. Fiona Wood have Wikipedia pages this is no fly by night nothing this is real, as real as it gets.

Also when on Avita website look into their pipeline and further trials with things other than ReCell, I believe one is going on in London right now. Avita is more than a one trick pony, just been getting beaten up going through the FDA which with all companies it takes it's toll you come out with some bruises but you come back in spades.

This I picked up from an article and thought it was quite telling "We continue to believe Avita's clinical program and FDA PMA approval differentiates it from other wound care companies and technologies, including MiMedx (MDXG), PolarityTE (PTE), and Vericel (VCEL)."

Well my friend you have some reading to do. Peace out.