Very wise and well reasoned angle 3King!
The sky isn't falling here...but the roller coaster will surely make many vomit and some fall off! This ain't for the weak but the reward doesn't normally go to them anyway. Let no one be delusional with what is at hand. The reality is that convertible note holders would prefer to convert than let CMTH pre-pay now that they have $$ coming in. Gulp, I said it. Now get over it and get real with the facts. It's a better deal for them, simple as that. The pre-pays option on the existing notes expire: Oct 3, 11 and 13th. Due to the gutter ball PPS as of late, the incentive is there to act now to get the best return for a note converter (more shares at the 60% discount). Another reason for the haste to convert is the ever imminent PR or 8K that provides positive news causing a run in this interim window (until Oct 13). While many cry about dilution being the end of it all, the simple fact is that although punitive, it is not terminal by any means, certainly not based on the history of CELZ. Even as the OS has bloated with dilution, the PPS has remained on an upward trajectory. There is no reason to expect that course of action to change now that doctors are clearly signing up and paying up.
Bottom line? Hang tight if you like what CELZ mgmt is doing or exit stage right and chase something else. I did notice someone talking about a different stock (immune based biotech) that did an RS and then, shortly thereafter, went UP dramatically. Hmm. Headscratcher. I thought all RS's were "awful". Maybe that's not the truth? That's all the proof anybody here needs to see that even if an RS happens to a stock, if the stock is a good one, it can be a net neutral or even a big catalyst UP. Most OTC RS's are ominous, I'll agree with that BUT, I would speculate that if (ZERO INDICATIONS THUS FAR) one happened for CELZ, it would be an exception like that other recent example.
FACTS:
CELZ is not bankrupt despite calls by many saying they are. Didn't they just hire a new top salesperson for the east coast? How did they do that if they are bankrupt?? They continue to operate and expand. They have a mild $65k per month burn rate (much less than many scientific research co's) and their CFO/COO is top-shelf if you just google Donald Dickerson and look up his LinkedIn page.
CELZ has tapped the ugly financing pools to pay for operations. It's a reality for MOST biotech startups. Those ugly terms are just part of the tapestry. HOWEVER, the tide began to change in June from ugly to much more reasonable. The last reported convertible note was issued on May 14th. They have secured two notes since then that were "regular" term notes with non-convertible terms and reasonable interest rates. How and why did this pivot occur? Simple. They started signing up doctors and getting handsome license fees UPFRONT. Never mind the kit sales that will be even more substantial as these top-class MD's start performing procedures all over the WORLD.
DESPITE the dilution and ugly terms of convertible notes, CELZ PPS has GONE UP this year.
December 2017: 106M Outstanding Shares and the share price was $0.0135
Yesterday's close 2018: 784M (last reported) but probably 825M now (just a guess) Outstanding Shares and PPS was what? $0.0305
That's right folks. Even with the scary swelling OS (678% increase), the PPS is UP 125.92% THIS YEAR. Anybody else find that impressive?
I, for one, would prefer they get all these notes completely converted this month (worst month for stocks historically anyway) and have a nice October bump up that is sustained into EOY with a good 10Q and study publishing. Can you imagine what this PPS will do when the Peer-Review Study is released by LABIOMED paired with revenue reports showing $100k's+ in MD sign ups? Gets me excited!
IF they purge the notes and they can support month-to-month from new MD's signing up + kit sales, it really won't matter if OS grows to 850M or 1B. If the convertible notes end and more reasonable borrowing prevails + revenue, this thing should POP.
AIMHO.
My sole allowed post. Good luck in the miserable waiting and don't despair too much, CELZ has bounced back many times already! Just look at the chart since January...
-- Narrow is the way and few are those who find it. --
