Market Direction and Stock Trends

[DiscoverGold]

Russell 3000 Index (RUA) Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 15, 2018

Analysis for the Week of September 17, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 14, 2018: Russell 3000 Cash closed today at 172635 and is trading up about 9.07% for the year from last year's closing of 158277. So far, we have been trading up for the past 5 days since the reaction low made on Fri. Sep. 7, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains quite strong. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Turning to the broader cyclical outlook, the map of the future is certainly interesting. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2020. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 158277 which is bullish. Furthermore, the market is trading below our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year 764535, which is negative. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 84671 which is 50% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 29 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 2009 from which we have witnessed a 9 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 194002 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Making use of our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 180803 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 165937. This provides a 8.22% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 192425 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 154315. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 19%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 172635, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 4.51% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come November in Russell 3000 Cash so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 173370 but closed on the positive side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 173370 to 166085. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 171545. To date, this rally has been up for five daily sessions.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 27th at 173370, which was up 29 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of September 3rd, which has been a move of.0149%. Nevertheless, we have elected all four Weekly buy signals to date.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 31 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 149694, which formed during the week of February 5th, and only a break of 170275 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 173370, which was created during the week of August 27th.

Critical support still underlies this market at 154315 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 30 months. The previous monthly level low was 105645, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 160816 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 173370, which was created during August. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.

• DiscoverGold

Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries