Market Direction and Stock Trends

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:::: Dow Jones Industrials Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 15, 2018

Analysis for the Week of September 17, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 14, 2018: Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 2615467 and is trading up about 5.80% for the year from last year's closing of 2471922. So far, we have been trading up for the past 3 days since the low made on Tue. Sep. 11, 2018. We did exceed the previous session's high and closed higher. Nonetheless, the market remains quite strong. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2022. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 2471922 which is bullish. Furthermore, the market is trading above our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year residing at 1793519, which is positive. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 1534068 which is 41% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very protracted extended period of 226 years reflecting the inevitable trend of progressive inflation. The last major cyclical low took place in 1974 from which we have witnessed a 44 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2009 from which we have experienced a 9 year rally. From a cyclical perspective, if this year closes lower than 2471922, then we can see a consolidation into then next ideal target.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 4760567 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 2681421 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 2560801. This provides a 4.49% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 2661672 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 2241590. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 15%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 2615467, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 2.45% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come January 2019 in Dow Jones Industrials so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during April. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has made a rebound to the upside so we could see a potential reaction high at that time frame. Last month produced a high at 2616794 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 2616794 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now. The projected resistance for this week stands at 2652244 and we need to close above this level on a weekly basis to maintain any upward momentum.

The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 2601992. Thus far, we are still within a reactionary phase upthree daily sessions.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 10th at 2621111, which was up 23 weeks from the low made back during the week of April 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 2621111 to 2575432. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of September 10th reaching 2621111 has exceeded the previous high of 2558724 made back during the week of July 23rd. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 23 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 2334452, which formed during the week of April 2nd, and only a break of 2580595 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 2621111, which was created during the week of September 10th, and has now been exceeded in the recent rally.

Critical support still underlies this market at 2241590 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 36 months. The previous monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015, and only a break of 2407756 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 2661671, which was created during January.

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