From SA Comments:
Analyst X
"I've been in Geron for 20 years and three weeks now, and I'm not surprised at all by today's events. Old-timers on this board know I used to post frequently, and that I listen closely to every Geron presentation, and continue to follow the discussion here even though I now post infrequently. That doesn't mean what I'm about to say is right, but I would appreciate the benefit of the doubt that it is at least well considered.
Basically, I see it as likely that given everything JNJ has been doing, posting the job description, including imetelstat in their compassionate use program, and listing imetelstat in all their presentations, with MDS added into today's presentation, one of two scenarios is likely taking place behind the scenes as regards to the CD, and neither of them make JNJ's actions today seem odd to me.
The first of the two scenarios is that JNJ and Geron are in negotiations regarding either altering their collaboration agreement, or a buyout of Geron. If they are in such negotiations, it would only strengthen Geron's hand in these negotiations with JNJ if JNJ put a lot of sizzle regarding imetelstat into today's presentation. But it would also be acting in bad faith (to my mind in a very counterproductive way from a corporate standpoint) if they took imetelstat out of the presentation entirely,- that would be tantamount to manipulation if they do intend to move forward one way or another, so if they are in negotiations it seems to me a very moderate action to settle on adding it to the slide deck in a way which is consistent with their intent to explore imetelstat in a minimum of MF and MDS going forward and then saying they aren't going to talk about it today. So by issuing essentially no comment on top of what they put in the slide deck, they've done more than the minimum to stay on the fair side of being in good faith, without doing something contrary to their own self interest in weakening their own hand in the negotiations by breaking news today that would drive Geron's share price up and thus weaken their hands in any negotiations. If they are bargaining with Geron right now, which is a distinct possibility, either over renegotiating the Collaboration Agreement in the hopes of gaining better terms for themselves if imetelstat becomes a blockbuster, or over the terms of a buyout, why would they want to drive Geron's market cap sky high today? It's not as if they are ignorant about the circumstances driving the stock,- a devoted fan base as exemplified by this board combined with 34% of the shares sold short. If there are serious negotiations going on you can bet the people conducting them are aware of these dynamics, and you can bet they were controlling precisely what was said and not said today. The palpable nervousness in the voice of the gentleman as he responded to the question about imetelstat today in the Q&A certainly seemed to me indicate that he had been told in no uncertain terms to not say much about imetelstat today.
Alternatively, if there actually aren't serious negotiations going on right now, and the corporate wheels at Janssen (as YD Nguyen suggests on the thread of OOI's September to Remember article) are grinding slowly simply because they have until the end of Q3 to announce the decision, then that also can explain the inclusion of imetelstat on the slides without it being included in the comments. It's on the slides because it is in the plans, but it can't be talked about because the people officially making the CD decision say it can't be discussed until the decision has been announced. I know that sounds very boring, and un-conspiracy-theory like, but I agree with Y D Nguyen that it would not be unusual at all for a big corporation to act this way.
So to me, there are two very likely scenarios if JNJ plans to continue with imetelstat that explain JNJ's actions today quite rationally and so I'm not surprised about today's actions.
Best to all longs, especially those who measure their time following this story in decades!
AX"
