I've been silently following on this message board on this stock for several months. I was holding 10k GERN shares priced at an average of 5.05 and I added 5k more today at 6.08 and another 50 $6 call contracts for next March at $1.80. I added more today because the price reaction is ridiculous today. I make this statement not because I am pumping the stock but rather the up and then down today was based on NOTHING.
1. So J&J mentioned GERN's drug on one slide - we already know they are considering this drug so this is a non-event (the jump up to $7 was based on nothing)
2. J&J did not mention GERN or GERN's drug when they covered the slide mentioned in number 1 above - and this means what? NOTHING. In fact, one could argue that they specifically did not mention anything because they are in talks with GERN about a wide variety of things including pricing and next steps where they or GERN cannot mention anything.
3. The question that was asked post conference led to a response, "we are evaluating the data and will be making a decision by the end of the month". This was a total dodge - what exactly was stated in that sentence that is negative (or positive)? NOTHING. Yet the share price deteriorates to $5.80? What was stated is known and is the same fact yesterday as it will be tomorrow AND for every day until a decision is announced.
4. Based on all of the negative sentiments created on NOTHING, AF tweets a perfectly orchestrated tweet stating the same thing he has been saying for months. THIS WAS NOT NEW it is the SAME OPINION AS HE HAD YESTERDAY. Yet due to the fragile mindset of the weak retails the share price collapsed to $5.10.
GET A GRIP PEOPLE. Will this drug by GERN get continued? I do not know but I believe it will be based on my own opinion and the material I have read. My opinion is no more significant or relevant than AF's opinion but it appears that people who publicly state that AF is a clown etc. do not act that way when he puts out a meaningless quote in the midst of a mindless selloff. Again, I have to repeat that absolutely NOTHING happened today that warrants the price collapsing to $5.10 (incidentally, we have recovered to $5.80 at the current moment so the market after the fear subsides agrees with me).
As for the other "opinions" being expressed by some -
A. Do I see a buyout for $100s of dollars by the end of the month - please - that is not very likely.
B. The continuation decision will move us to $50 - not likely. I would be pleased if we move into the double digits AND maintain that level. I believe this will happen and specifically $10-$11. Could it go higher - absolutely IF THE DATA IS UNEXPECTEDLY GOOD.
I will finish by saying, shorts are not stupid and they are very well organized. They know that fear is a powerful force that can get otherwise rational people to behave totally irrationally as we saw today. Do not discount the shorts nor believe that they do not have a plan to extract themselves out of their positions. Instead - focus on the facts, if the facts are good then the stock price will follow an upward trajectory. I won't state the obvious if the facts are not good. Let's look forward to the actual news event - the continuation decision.
BTW: the next short attack which I started hearing today is the message, "so what if they get continued - now we need a phase 3 trial which is years away so this is dead money till then". This sentence, if the continuation decision happens, will be the next short cry to keep the share price tempered.
Good luck to all of you.
Spockie YB.
AI
