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Wednesday, September 12, 2018 9:40:13 PM
1. The term sheet was all the way back from August of last year. It's being disclosed now because the company is no doubt trying very hard to keep the share price up and raise some capital.
2. It's odd that the Aspire deal specified B-OM and not B-IBD. May indicate our assessment of the BP's relative interest, ie, they want OM more than IBD. Or that there will be two separate deals and OM was/is further along.
3. FDA meeting request on B-OM in September. This means a meeting in hopefully Oct, though Nov possible. An OM deal is pretty dependent on the outcome of this. This is why no deal has been struck yet, I'm fairly sure. The delay on this meeting has been surprising. I wonder how much of it was due to lack of analyst resources to prepare for the meeting.
4. A few years ago, at 140MM shares o/s I assumed we'd have at least 200MM shares o/s by the time we'd get to NDAs. We're over 200MM now and we have a ways to go. I now assume 300MM and that's probably an under estimate. Even at 240MM diluted shares now we have an effective market cap of around $70MM. This is why some view us as over valued. $70MM for a company that can't pay its CRO at the moment.
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