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:::: S&P 500 Index Cash Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 8, 2018

Analysis for the Week of September 10, 2018

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Sep. 7, 2018: S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 287168 and is trading up about 7.40% for the year from last year's closing of 267361. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past 7 days, while we have made a low at 286412 following the high established Wed. Aug. 29, 2018, this price action warns that we have a pause in trend. However, we have now elected a Bullish Reversal from this immediate price action and closed on the soft-side at the end of the session failing to bounce sharply from the lows. We did penetrate the previous session's low and closed lower. Nonetheless, the market remains somewhat positive. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

The broader view on a cyclical model, provides us with a map to the future that is rather interesting. Our target last year, in fact, proved to be an upward trading year yet closed above the previous high. This year was the next target due for 2018. We do see this year as a possible turning point so how we close will be important. The subsequent target for a turning point will be 2019. At this time, the market is trading above last year's close of 267361 which is bullish. Furthermore, the market is trading below our Dynamic Pivot Point for this year 1793519, which is negative. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 142618 which is 50% just below the current price levels warning that a year-end closing beneath that level would signal the start of an official bear market trend.

During this year, we have exceeded last year's high which formed the new historical major high to date and we have been in a bull market for a very extended period of 67 years. The last major cyclical low took place in 1974 from which we have witnessed a 44 year broader-term rally. On the shorter-term perspective, the last minor cyclical low took place in 2016 from which we have experienced a 2 year rally.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 327445 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Utilizing our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 303667 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 279633. This provides a 7.91% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 322749 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 260551. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 19%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 287168, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 5.43% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come November in S&P 500 Cash Index so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a high at 291650 but closed on the positive side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 291650 to 279634. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.

The overall tone of this market is neutral at this time as it is balanced on all levels daily through yearly..

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 27th at 291650, which was up 29 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 5th. We have seen the market decline further this week dropping to 0 and we are back above resistance which is beginnjing to now form initial support at 286412. The market has bounced from the low this week to close stronger at the immediate close of this session.

Currently, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 30 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 253269, which formed during the week of February 5th. The last high on the weekly level was 291650, which was created during the week of August 27th.

Critical support still underlies this market at 260551 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 30 months. The previous monthly level low was 181010, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 269895 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 291650, which was created during August.

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