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Friday, September 07, 2018 9:09:59 AM
Market Reversals Common Following “Strong” August Performance
By: Almanac Trader | September 6, 2018
Thus far solid market gains in August have not carried over into September. DJIA is a slightly higher, but S&P 500 and NASDAQ are not. Looking back at past strong August performance there is a pattern of below average performance in September. The dividing line for “strong” August performance was drawn at each index’s respective performance this August. For example, any August since 1950 in which DJIA gained 2.2% or more was included. The same dividing line was used for S&P 500 going back to 1950 and NASDAQ since 1971.
Looking at the above table, September’s weaker performance following a “strong” August is quite visible. Compared to all Septembers since 1950, DJIA average performance following a “strong” August falls to a 1.2% loss compared to a 0.7% average decline in all Septembers. The frequency of positive Septembers also declines significantly from 39.7% in all Septembers to just 22.2% in Septembers after a “strong” August. S&P 500 and NASDAQ exhibit similar declines in September’s average performance. In the case of a “strong” August, strength does not equal continued strength all that often.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/177812764108/market-reversals-common-following-strong-august
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By: Almanac Trader | September 6, 2018
Thus far solid market gains in August have not carried over into September. DJIA is a slightly higher, but S&P 500 and NASDAQ are not. Looking back at past strong August performance there is a pattern of below average performance in September. The dividing line for “strong” August performance was drawn at each index’s respective performance this August. For example, any August since 1950 in which DJIA gained 2.2% or more was included. The same dividing line was used for S&P 500 going back to 1950 and NASDAQ since 1971.
Looking at the above table, September’s weaker performance following a “strong” August is quite visible. Compared to all Septembers since 1950, DJIA average performance following a “strong” August falls to a 1.2% loss compared to a 0.7% average decline in all Septembers. The frequency of positive Septembers also declines significantly from 39.7% in all Septembers to just 22.2% in Septembers after a “strong” August. S&P 500 and NASDAQ exhibit similar declines in September’s average performance. In the case of a “strong” August, strength does not equal continued strength all that often.
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/177812764108/market-reversals-common-following-strong-august
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Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
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