breakthru
Points from Q2 2018 Geron Corp Earnings Call on July 31, 2018
In connection with Janssen's Continuation Decision [CD] for further development of Imetelstat:
- Janssen CD time frame: GERN expects by the end of the 3rd quarter 2018 (approx. 30Sept18).
- Data Package from Janssen (IMbark primary Analysis & IMerge preliminary results including additional cohort of 25 patients recently enrolled).
- GERN does not expect to provide any further comments on the contents or the timing of this data package prior to Janssen's decision, except under certain circumstances.
-- For example, if the Joint Steering Committee comprised of member of both Janssen and Geron determine that the data do not support further development of imetelstat, then we would expect to disclose such a conclusion even prior to a Janssen decision.
- Regarding data presentation: to maintain the customary medical conference embargo for such potential presentations, we do not anticipate data from either trial to be publicly presented before Janssen notifies us of their decision.
As an opinion, a "sign post" along the CD road to watch is:
1. If a prior CD announcement of - "data do not support further development of Imetelstat"- it's game over.
2. If item #1 above does not occur, than a favorable "Data Package" is highly likely. Assuming the "Data Package" is delivered to GERN 2 to 4 weeks prior to the end of the 3rd quarter, the risk is progressively reduced as the 3rd quarter CD end date approaches.
3. If item #2 occurs, then I would expect the stock price to rise accordingly during the 2-4 weeks prior to the CD.
4. Yes, there are other scenarios. However, given all the prior articles and data presented to date, I tend to lean towards a positive Janssen CD.
Disclosure: I am long GERN. YB .
