Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc (HMNY)

[BobDoleYahoo]

1. The more I thought about this, the more I believe Ted and Mitch are pulling a fast one on shareholders. I think the MP subs they quoted, they spun the numbers around to make it sound good. Ted never once mentioned monthly subs cancellation rates. He just mentioned annual plan subs. I suspect annual plan subs who are heavy users are cancelling but those who are aren't, or even those who would normally cancel, are not cancelling only because they have 3-5 months left and they don't mind paying $6.95-$8.95 per month for the remainder of their terms. I suspect a significant number of these will cancel once their plan turns into monthly $9.95 fees. We may see close to 2 million subs by end of year, or early 2019.

2. Also, we know the shenanigans they pulled by automatically re-enrolling subs against their own will, obviously illegal. I bet they were counting these cancelled subs.

3. The subs who cancelled a month ago, who are still "active" before the billing cycle ends, I bet they also counted.

4. I suspect MP sub counts are below 2.5 million. The question is, when will they give an update?

5. More importantly, I re-ran the numbers to include OPERATING EXPENSE, which is roughly $22 million per quarter, or about $7 million per month. This figure theoretically should lower as their MP sub count lowers. However, I'll account this figure in my next calculations.

6. The 0.9 ratio that Ted claimed (which we all know included the "forced and fake" outages during the past month, is an artificial number that is not realistic of future predictions. If I offered an all you can eat buffet place and charged everyone $50 a month subscription, and then didn't pay my electricity bill, or intentionally sabotaged the electrical wiring so that I couldn't open the place up half the time, I could claim I'm making a ton of money and few people actually eat at an all you can eat buffet. How dumb is that? That's exactly what HMNY was doing.

7. So in these calculations, I used a ratio of 0.55. This means the average MP sub would need to go to the movies only ONCE every TWO MONTHS for MP to truly break even, taking into account OPERATING EXPENSE (which Ted does not quote or take into account when he uses his "monthly cash deficit" number). This gives about $5 million MONTHLY CASH SURPLUS per month. For the entire quarter, this is about $15 million MONTHLY CASH SURPLUS. This basically cancels out the $15-20 million OPERATING EXPENSE. This is also accounting of course for the $1 million or so ad revenue they currently get.

As you can see, even at an artificial 0.9 ratio Ted claimed, that means they would still be losing $15-$20 million a quarter instead of the the $130+ million, which is much better than before, sure), however, does NOT prevent continued massive dilution due to the extremely low share price. At 2 cents PPS and $20 million loss per quarter, they would still need to dilute ONE BILLION SHARES per quarter to survive.

And this doesn't take into account Emmett/Oasis' money-wasting scheme.

There's no version of this where shareholders come out on top. Another reverse split is coming, or it's OTC penny world. You all have been warned (as I've warned for the past half year when this thing was still trading in the $500+ post-split accounted for range).

https://photos.app.goo.gl/Lr2A7RmuBNhUZnYd9