NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis By: Marty Armstrong | September 1, 2018
Analysis for the Week of September 03, 2018
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Fri. Aug. 31, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6980 and is trading up about 15% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. Thus far, we traded down the previous day. Immediately, the market was an inside trading session warning of a brief pause in trend (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)
From a cyclical perspective, the broader view which provides a map to the future is most interesting. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2020. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 6042 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2020 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2021 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2020. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 9270. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 5243.
The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 167% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 which we have already exceeded and are currently trading above this level warning some strength has resurfaced in this market. This level can now offer technical support during any attempt to fall back in this market. Looking at our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 6993 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 6421. This provides a 8.17% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 7300 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5994. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 17%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 6980, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding.
A possible change in trend appears due come September in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 6443 but closed on the positive side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.
Our Daily level momentum and trend indicators are both bullish 6920. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend is bullish while the cyclical strength indicator is neutral providing a mixed perspective of the market beyond the short-term.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 2nd at 7527, which was up 54 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of August 13th, which has been a move of.0887%. Even so, we have elected one Weekly buy signal to date.
Generally, this market is in an uptrend position on all our weekly indicators for the near-term trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 10 weeks. The previous weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th, and only a break of 6485 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the weekly level was 7527, which was created during the week of July 2nd.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5994 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 30 months. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016, and only a break of 6629 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The last high on the monthly level was 7527, which was created during July.
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