Spectrum Pharmaceutecals Inc (SPPI)

[antihama]

I can't get this smirk off my face looking at the SP today. JT is telling us, by way of scheduling two CCs around the abstract release on Sept 5th that the data that will be presented is something to talk about, that it's going to be good, maybe real good, and yet the SP is taking a hit today. Is it sell on the news? Well if the news is really good for both EGFR and HER2 in NSCLC, that's 20,000 patients, and $3B in potential sales assuming Tagrisso type prices from last year ($153,000) and 1 year PFS; you reduce or add to that according to what the PFS #s come in at and the price they will charge e.g. if PFS comes in at 9 months that $2.25B. These potential #s are doubled when you add the 20 something tumor types where the mutations have been found. So what Bret Jensen of Seeking Alpha wrote in his blog today comes to mind

Is The 'Smart Money' Really That Smart?
Aug. 30, 2018 12:08 PM ET|Includes: Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG), TGT, WMT
One thing I have found in over three decades of investing is this. In order to consistently beat the market, you must have an investing thesis than most investors are overlooking or ignoring completely.

Most of these are short-term observations. For example, accelerating wage growth, the lowest weekly unemployment claims in a half a century, rising labor participation levels and the highest consumer confidence levels since the internet boom; should have led investors to the conclusion that business should accelerate for mass market retailers like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Signet Jewelers (SIG).

This, of course, did not happen. This is confirmed by the big rallies these stocks posted after these companies blew away expectations with their second quarter results.

Occasionally, and hopefully at least once in every investor's life; they come up with an investment thesis than pans out for years or even decades.

ps I'm not sure if it's a smirk or silly grin or just a dumbfounded look but you get the picture.

Edit - I wasn't even thinking of the other scenario of putting this hit in the SP creates doubt in an investors head whereby the investor is thinking 'OMG, somebody knows something and its not good'. I didn't immediately think of that scenario because of the PR today that JT will be presenting at the 2 HCCs makes me think the only reason for that is to brag about good data. Anyhows, I guess we'll have to wait till definitive news on Tuesday to put an end to that thought for good.