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Re: researcher59 post# 56964

Thursday, 10/26/2006 12:51:51 PM

Thursday, October 26, 2006 12:51:51 PM

Post# of 173850
Researcher59...NG prices...something to think about. NG reserve differences between April 15, 2005 and 2006 was an amount of 430 bcf extra in 2006. Obviously this was because of the mild winter not drawing down reserves.

Here's what's interesting....Even without any hurricanes slowing production down, the warmer summer we experienced drew down the difference of 430 bcf from April to 314 bcf as of today (comparing 2005 to 2006 still). (Remember the first drawdown in the summer ever this year). This is without any hurricane whatsoever slowing production numbers down this year compared to the big slowdown last year. Overall, not a big deal, except if we get a normal winter drawdown (or slightly greater amount if the El Nino affect is weak) and a hot summer again.....there may not even need a strong hurricane to make NG a play for next winter big time.

No one was concerned about lower summer addition this year due to the surplus, but what if there hadn't been the extra reserve? The need for increased electricity in the summer could start to make a difference in the future. Maybe not even next year, but eventually NG reserves will get drawdown to normal levels and then there is going to be increased concern on the ability to build them back up again.

Something to think about.

Dave
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