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Sunday, August 19, 2018 4:04:16 AM
On one hand, there are millions of patients waiting for a drug like this that are ready to pay, but on the other hand, we don't know how much dilution there will be before Neurotrope can stop relying on money from investors.
The Maxim report expects a Bryostatin market entry in 2023, which means that the company still needs to fund itself for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.
They seem to have enough funds to complete the confirmatory trial, but then they also need to find a way to fund a future phase 3 trial and a Fragile X trial.
In that regard, I expect that once Bryostatin hits markets, the company could have anything between 20 million and 30 million outstanding shares.
As for revenue, if the company treats 500,000 patients a year for $300/month, they'll be raking in at least $1.8 billion/year.
Throw a P/E of 15 on top of that, and you have a valuation of $27 billion.
Treating other diseases than AD will increase the amount of patients, but then again, they might also treat less than 500,000 a year.
It's all speculative at this point. Anything could happen in the next 5 years.
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