Choose a different title name

[ThatHawaiiGuy]

Vote To Re-elect Bush? Well... No Thanks
Voters are less and less interested in re-electing President Bush. Check out these recent figures. The Zogby poll has just 40 percent saying he deserves re-election and 52 percent saying it's time for someone new -- a 12 point deficit for Bush, 9 points worse than he fared in mid-August. In the Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll, only 38 percent are willing to say they would definitely vote to re-elect Bush, while 36 percent would definitely vote for someone else and 24 percent would consider someone else. And, in the latest CNN/Time poll, a shockingly low 29 percent say they would definitely vote for Bush in '04, compared to 41 percent who say they would definitely vote against him (25 percent might vote for or against).

Significantly, in the latter poll, independents -- a rough proxy for swing voters -- are notably more negative about Bush than the public as a whole. More independents disapprove of Bush's job performance (49 percent) than approve (45 percent). By 48 percent to 42 percent, independents believe Bush has done more to divide than unite the country. By 55 percent to 39 percent, these voters do not believe the phrase "compassionate conservative" describes Bush. And twice as many independents say they definitely plan to vote against Bush (44 percent) than say they definitely plan to vote for him (22 percent). Wow.

Why are voters losing enthusiasm for the president who, not so long ago, seemed politically invincible? It's pretty simple. They think the economy is doing badly, the situation in Iraq is deteriorating and the country overall is going in the wrong direction. Given this, American voters' pragmatism (go with what works; reject what doesn't) is now leading them away from Bush and making them less willing to cut him slack, simply because he performed well right after 9/11.

Take the direction of the country. The latest Democracy Corps poll has only 36 percent of likely voters saying the country is going in the right direction, while 54 percent say it is off on the wrong track (59 percent of independents). That 18-point gap between right direction and wrong track is triple the gap observed by the Democracy Corps in late July.

Take the economy. It should come as no surprise people are dissatisfied, given the most recent Labor Department jobs report that showed the economy shedding 93,000 jobs in August, 437,000 short of the administration's own projections for the month. The economy has lost 2.7 million jobs since Bush took office, 600,000 since the beginning of the year and 225,000 since the Bush's latest tax cut package was passed in late May. (The basic facts are in the invaluable JobWatch feature from the Economic Policy Institute, which Public Opinion Watch highly recommends.)

No wonder that 55 percent now say they want to go in a different direction on the economy, compared to 39 percent who want to continue in Bush's direction. And no wonder that voters now favor the Democrats over the Republicans on the economy by a healthy 15 points.

Take the situation in Iraq and national security. On Iraq specifically, opinion is clearly shifting against Bush. In the ABC News poll, Bush's approval rating on Iraq has sunk to 49 percent (with 47 percent disapproval), down 7 points since August 24. By almost 20 points (57 percent to 38 percent), the public now believes the number of casualties in Iraq is unacceptable, given the goals versus the costs of the war. And by 48 to 40 percent, the public now says the long-term risk of terrorism to the United States will increase as a result of the Iraq war. That's a stark contrast to mid-April, when people believed by 2:1 that the war would decrease the long-term risk of terrorism.

While Bush still retains a significant advantage on general national security concerns, even that advantage is eroding rapidly, according to the Democracy Corps poll. For example, the Republicans famously had a 40 point advantage over the Democrats in November 2002 on the issue of keeping America strong. That's largely why they did so well in the '02 election. But now that advantage has more than cut in half, down to 16 points. Intriguingly, this is exactly the same Republican advantage registered by a Democracy Corps poll right before 9/11.

And when it comes to foreign policy, the Democrats have not only made gains, they are approaching parity. The Republican advantage over the Democrats on foreign policy is now only 6 points and it is dead even between continuing in Bush's direction on foreign policy or going in a significantly different direction. It is also about even between continuing in Bush's direction on foreign policy or going in a different direction on respect for the United States in the world and close to even (4 point Bush advantage) on relations with countries around the world. And on the specific issue of Iraq, where Bush's policies once commanded such high support, there is now a large group of Americans (41 percent) who would prefer to go in a different direction, rather than stay the course with Bush.

Of course, the Democrats still have much work to do in the national security area to make their critique stick (for example, by 30 points, voters say they want to continue in Bush's direction on fully funding homeland security, despite the well-documented fact that this area has been dramatically underfunded by the administration). In this regard, the Democracy Corps memo, "Passing the National Security Threshhold", has much useful advice for Democrats. But Public Opinion Watch has said for a long time that if the Democrats could cut the GOP's advantage on national security in half and open up a substantial lead on the economy, they had an excellent chance of knocking off Bush in '04. Well, we're there.


* * *
Harris Interactive poll of 1,003 adults for Time/CNN, released September 5, 2003

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll 1,004 likely voters for Democracy Corps, released September 5, 2003

Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll of 766 registered voters, released September 5, 2003

Zogby poll of 1,013 likely voters, released September 6, 2003

TNS Intersearch poll of 1,004 adults for ABC News, released September 8, 2003


* * *

GOP Targets Hispanics
The Cummings article describes the GOP's efforts to moderate its image so as to appeal to groups suspicious of the party, particularly Hispanics. But just how likely are Hispanics to be won over by these appeals? The latest evidence we have on this question is from a CBS/The New York Times poll, conducted in mid-to-late July that included a large Hispanic oversample to facilitate comparison of Hispanics with the overall population and various subgroups.

The poll shows that, on almost every important indicator, Hispanics are more, and frequently much more, anti-Republican and pro-Democratic than the overall population. And they are especially pro-Democratic when compared to whites.

Here are some figures from the poll. Bush's approval rating among Hispanics is 52 percent. That compares to 54 percent among the overall population and about 59 to 60 percent among non-Hispanic whites (Public Opinion Watch's estimate on whites; bizarrely, The Times supplies data for Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks and all non-Hispanics, but not non-Hispanic whites, so data from this group must be inferred from the other data given). Moreover, Bush's favorability rating among Hispanics is only 37 percent, compared to 46 percent for all adults and 52 to 53 percent among whites and just 21 percent of Hispanics are willing to say, at this point, that they would probably vote to re-elect Bush.

And what is the Democratic party's favorability rating among Hispanics? A rather healthy 60 percent, with just 22 percent unfavorable; the Republican party gets an anemic 40 percent favorability rating, with 39 percent unfavorable. In addition, Hispanics' partisanship is 2:1 Democratic and, by 49 percent to 21 percent, Hispanics think Democrats are more likely to care about the needs of Hispanics. Hispanics also favor Democrats by 30 points on creating new jobs, by 24 points on education, by 23 points on ensuring a strong economy and by 22 points on sharing their moral values.

Underscoring their proclivity for Democrats, Hispanics also say, by an incredible 75 percent to 16 percent margin -- by almost 60 points! -- that they would rather have a bigger government providing more services than a smaller government providing fewer services. The public as a whole favor smaller government by 48 percent to 40 percent.

Finally, Hispanics aren't even that supportive of the war with Iraq, contrary to various anecdotal reports in the press. By 49 percent to 40 percent, Hispanics do not think removing Saddam from power was worth the loss of American life and other costs; that compares to 54 percent to 39 percent among the general public who do think that removing Saddam was worth the costs.

Conclusion: the GOP can target Hispanics, but, based on these and other data, they are unlikely to succeed anytime soon.


* * *
Bush Watchword: Tolerance
by Jeanne Cummings
The Wall Street Journal, September 3, 2003

http://www.tompaine.com/feature2.cfm/ID/8840