Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[Spideyboy]

OK, so I ran an analysis and made a spreadsheet with the 3 arms at 3/7, 3/7 and 1/7. 1/7 is the placebo.

If Multikine were the same efficacy as SOC, expected events by May 2018 = 344

If Multikine were to provide 10% superiority on survival, then expected events by May 2018 = 314
- Difference with SOC only of 30 (I concede I was wrong on this before Lightrock as I didn't appreciate the 3/7, 3/7, 1/7 distribution, yes it is 30 at 10% superiority)

If Multikine were to provide 15% superiority on survival, then expected events by May 2018 = 300
- Difference with SOC only of 44

If Multikine were to provide 20% of superior on survival, then expected events by May 2018 = 285
- Difference with SOC only of 59

Therefore all three of the 'same efficacy as SOC' and both the 10% and 15% superior Multikine efficacy numbers should have happened by now. Which is not the case.

And from this it looks like we could be entering the 20% efficacy realm as we are 3 months past May 2018.

I am not necessarily saying that the publicised 5 year survival rates are 100% applicable to this exact trial, but it would seem we are well past the 10% superiority over SOC.


I would be happy to share my spreadsheet if you can suggest an anonymous way. I tried sharing a google excel doc, but seems to still come up with my real name.