Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc (ELTP)

[WeeZuhl]

...Nasrat is pumping the brakes on SequestOx. Quietly slowing it down but not publicly saying so. Essentially he is pushing back the need for the $1+ million expenditure until revenue and/or share price increases.

Expanding on this, what does it matter, at this point, if SequestOx is approved one year later? For those folks who believe SequestOx approval will trigger a buyout, I guess it means a whole lot. But I’ve never worshipped at that altar, and I do not think any buyout is imminent. Nasrat has his number, and I believe it is a hard target. I don’t think he will throw in the towel until he gets it. I don’t know for certain what his number is, but I believe it is more than a few dollars. Nobody is going to buy this company for multiple billions of dollars based on potential. No news or approvals or technologies will get his buyout price. There is only one way to get to his number: earnings in the range of hundreds of millions of dollars. By now, Nasrat’s strategy is obvious: fill those buckets one drop at a time. Grow the company with a combination of NDA’s and lucrative ANDA’s. File, file, file. Wait, wait, wait. Launch, launch, launch. Grow, grow, grow. Repeat, repeat, repeat. There is no way to speed up the process. There is no short-cut around the process. The process is very expensive, and there are plenty of ways to screw it up. The potential payoff here is spectacular, but it will come through a long process, not through magic, and it is still years away. Anything that happens sooner will be a less than optimum result, and I hope it doesn’t happen.


When I say I’m long, I mean loooooooong. Why do I care if SequestOx is approved next year or the year after? I’ll say it again- my enemy is not time, my enemy is dilution. Fine by me to shift the cost of SequestOx back until it can be offset by revenue instead of dilution, especially with recent share price, and especially with the current ADF environment. Nasrat may be smart to follow the lead of these 4 companies who have 5 approved ADF products collecting dust. If these companies aren’t even bothering to launch products they spent millions to develop, then why the hell should we dilute our positions at the worst possible time in order to hurry up SequestOx? Nasrat must have confidence that FDA will give him another extension, or else he wouldn’t be dragging his feet waiting to hear from them. I would much rather see the company’s limited resources going toward co-development of four ANDA’s with SunGen. Instead of SequestOx in 2019, we get all 5 products a year later and with less dilution. Exactly the right strategy, which was a smart response to the (lack of) developments in the ADF market and a timely adaptation to the FDA’s new emphasis on a 10-month ANDA review cycle. Way more bang for the buck, diversification, less dilution, only thing lost is time. I would prefer if he would just say this, instead of putting it on the FDA, but that is a style point.


Sorry, SequestOx, we're just not that into you right now.