I think:
1.
There 'probably' isnt' anything major in the way of technical problmes
Caveat: they hid problems from us couple years back. I was one of the first in social media to stary calling out "there's a problem with production". but, I don't buy this "it's only a staffing issue" re: hiring operators is not tough, at all. we are not talking rocket scientists... we are talking general machinists/operators. I work for a factory in Tampa right now and when we need skilled welders, machinists, operators, we have them by the end of the week. Training? 5-10 days for AQMS, tops.
2.
there are on a CEO search. I own a headhunting agency and have been an international headhunter for 20 years. This role should have been filled already. Until we know who this new guy/gal is.. we don't have a clue as to company culture & direction ( to a degree )
3.
They will run out of money within 12-16 weeks.. at least below that $10M threshold they talking about on the CC. And they are burning through money still. the cash they make from scraps is not cutting it. So I expect either a Loan or much worse, Dilution announced within 4-9 weeks.. this is why this thing sold off so badly at open. $3.00 to $2.04 was not just some freak accident. They say they are still a bit off from selling ingots. in fact they won't really even use this word anymore, much. there seems to be a little tech prob there? the "new" word is Bullion...
4.
JCI don't pay a lot for the lead they get recycled and back. it's a good deal for them and this is why the engagement is in place and they've stuck with it all this time. I don't put a whole lot into idea that they are super excited about potential and they intend to get rich off this partnership. They invest, get their money back and then a great commercial deal on an ongoing business cost for themselves. They are just getting a good deal in the long run. is my idea.
5.
Execution was disappointingly poor after sidelining Clarke. they took a step or two in the right direction, but the culture does not seem to have changed. which is a worry. We needed a catapultic shift in Culture. maybe the New CEO, whoever this ends up being, will give the company a new focus.
DISCLOSURE:
anyway.. thats what I thought two nights ago after reading the ER, CC.. I was long over 11K shares at that point with an average around $3.30. I sold a little after hours in the 2.80s few K more pre market in the 2.60s.. bought more in the 2.06 - 2.20 range and then sold all just under 2.50
I went SHORT 2.52 2.54 2.57 and a couple times time 2.60.
I think this pig dips $2.00. at which point I'm back green.
I could be totally wrong. But that is what I think.
I'll be covering under $2.00 and then if we ever see $1.50 which I'm not banking on.. I'll start buying back $1.75 down to $1.50.
Who Knows. I do not.
those are my thoughts.
