Hi all. First time posting to the board but I've been following along since earlier this year. I appreciate all of the DD and optimism previously posted. I have to admit that I have mostly written this off as a complete loss given the last two months. Bombay and blueski, I have a hard time disagreeing with your recent posts. However, the reason I'm holding until the end is, if things fall into place over the next 6-12 months, I will feel even more depressed about missing the ride up than I do about the current big loss.
Reasons to believe in this product:
1. There is an emerging clinical space for the product. There was a newly published study in JAMA last month out of Canada. It was a large trial looking at using HPV testing for primary screening of cervical cancer. It shows that while HPV testing has a higher negative predictive value than Pap smear/cytology screening, the trade off is a larger number of false positives. This means that if HPV testing is adopted as a primary screening tool, more women will be referred for colposcopies who don't actually need them. This population is where LuViva already has demonstrated value, and could very nicely fit into a standard clinical pathway in developed countries to help decrease these invasive procedures and save costs.
2. LuViva outperforms pap or acetic acid testing for screening and still could be utilized in the developing world where infrastructure for HPV and/or cytology testing doesn't exist.
3. I tried to find the abstract for the recent study reported at the Eurasian cancer screening conference. I couldn't, but that's pretty common for abstracts presented at conferences. What I did find is obvious evidence that LuViva had a booth set up at the conference, which is certainly a positive. (search newmarsgroup and eurasian cancer screening conference) They haven't thrown in the towel yet!
I realize none of these have anything to do with how the company is being run into the ground from a business perspective, but the product is real and is actually still clinically relevant. I hope that means we aren't dead yet.
Red Flags that I've come across since doing more research (admittedly after investing way too much money in this company). Does anyone have any insight into these?
1. What happened to the publicized Canadian “pilot study” that was supposed to take place between 2015-2016. And what happened to Dr. James Bentley, who was previously championing the technology in Canada?
2.There was a 4 year contract announced with ITEM in 2015 that was supposed to bring in $10 million in revenue through 2018. What happened to this contract? Does the failure of this contract shed any light on the failure of payments this year with the new contract?
My gut tells me the future of this company is all based on Turkey. If the 1.1 mil shows up, that is a record for revenue and could actually signal we've survived the bottom.
Franken-vestor, did you get the impression from your call that they can't fill the Turkey order because they have no money? Or has the order been filled and they just aren't being paid for it? Can you provide any other details that may give us poor saps a glimmer of hope?
Good luck to all.
