I have thoroughly enjoyed this board this week. The amount of inaccurate, misleading information is unfathomable.
Here's a quick, speculative, analysis. There is 30% chance this goes into liquidation. There is a 70% chance assets are purchased by one or more strategic buyers. There is a 0% chance this is purchased by a financial buyer.
No financial buyer will buy this, why? A financial buyer wants to purchase the company as a whole, retain employees, customers, etc, and sell the company 2 years later at a profit. There were no "serious" financial buyers during the SISP. The company is not profitable enough, and would not be in 2 years for a financial buyer to be interested.
There are 30 or so strategic buyers, interested in the assets BioAmber has. This could be the Sarnia plant, inventory, patents, etc. A strategic buyer doesn't necessary want a plant that can produce Succinic Acid, but just the plant in general. If you've done your DD, you know this plant is capable of making a lot of different chemicals... and to these strategic buyers, why build a similar plant at 180 million or so dollars, when you can purchase one, where the kinks have been worked, out, that is gently used, for 100 million. A Strategic buy DOES NOT WANT the existing employees, that explains the court ordered KERP. My best educated guess, tells me the 2 buyers that dropped out, did not want Sarnia's current management and employees, that is why the dropped out. NOW, during this stage of solicitation, KERP is gone. Strategic buyers can buy the plant and employ whoever and make whatever chemical the plant is capable of.
Essentially, now there is a lot of more options for strategic buyers.
There are 9 liquidation companies, worse case scenario, is no strategic buyers find the plant enticing enough... I find that hard to believe with 30 or so already listed, but it's definitely not off the table.
If memory serves me correctly, the liquidation value would be around 34 million, enough to pay off secured creditors. The unsecured creditors don't want this (and us shareholders too), nor do the courts. They want a strategic buyer, they want tax dollars from business operations, they want employment in Sarnia.
Edit, I expect this to crash this morning, I'll probably add some more shares. I really hope it hits .001. 100,000 shares for 100 bucks? Even if the shareholders get a penny in the end, I've made money.
Good luck to all, longs and shorts, be profitable!
