Wednesday, August 01, 2018 5:23:04 AM
Matthew Frankel
8-1-18
Motley Fool
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/this-favorite-warren-buffett-metric-tells-us-a-stock-market-crash-could-be-coming/ar-BBL7KZy?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout
Without question, Warren Buffett and the rest of Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-A)(NYSE: BRK-B) investment team incorporate many different metrics when evaluating prospective companies to acquire and stocks to buy. However, Buffett himself has mentioned one specific metric as the best indicator of stock valuations, and it has appropriately been nicknamed the "Buffett Indicator" in the investing community. Here's what the Buffett Indicator is, and why it may be signaling that the stock market is a bit overheated.
The Buffett Indicator
This is a metric that Buffett uses to get an overall feel for the valuation of U.S. stocks. In fact, he described it as "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" in a 2001 interview with Fortune Magazine.
It's a fairly simple metric to calculate, too. Just divide the total market capitalization of all U.S. stocks by the latest gross domestic product (GDP).
Is it reliable?
To be clear, no stock market metrics are 100% reliable at predicting corrections, crashes, rallies, or stagnant stock markets. After all, if this were the case, wouldn't everyone know exactly when to buy, sell, and hold in order to maximize their profits?
That being said, the Buffett Indicator, while it's not a flawless indicator, does tend to peak during hot stock markets and bottom during weak markets. And as a general rule, if the indicator falls below 80%-90% or so, it has historically signaled that stocks are cheap. On the other hand, levels significantly higher than 100% can indicate stocks are expensive.
For context, the Buffett indicator peaked at about 145% right before the dot-com bubble burst and reached nearly 110% before the financial crisis.
There are two big caveats to realize. First, just because the Buffett Indicator signals that stocks are cheap doesn't mean that they won't get even cheaper. As you'll see in the chart in the next section, the Buffett Indicator didn't bottom out during the financial crisis until it was briefly below 50%. Conversely, just because the Buffett Indicator looks expensive (like it does now) doesn't mean that stocks can't continue to muscle higher.
In a nutshell, the Buffett indicator can tell you the valuation of the stock market in a historical context right now. It doesn't predict tops or bottoms.
What's the Buffett Indicator saying now?
Where does the Buffett Indicator stand now? It may surprise you to learn that, at nearly 149%, the total market cap to GDP ratio has never been higher. It's even higher than the 145% peak we saw during the dot-com bubble.
There are some good reasons for high valuations, such as the new, lower corporate tax rate, the generally business-friendly administration, a prolonged period of historically low interest rates, low unemployment, high consumer confidence, and soaring corporate earnings, just to name a few. I'd even go so far as to say that the fact that the Buffett Indicator doesn't take some of these things into account is perhaps its biggest flaw. For example, if you look at the stock market during a high-interest period and a low-interest period, examining stock valuations isn't exactly an apples-to-apples comparison.
Having said that, it does seem like Buffett himself is paying attention and agrees that the market is generally expensive. After all, the lack of attractive investment opportunities has resulted in Berkshire Hathaway accumulating nearly $110 billion of cash and equivalents on its balance sheet. Plus, Buffett has specifically cited valuation when discussing the absence of major acquisitions lately.
Should investors worry?
To sum it up, while the Buffett Indicator is certainly a great snapshot of stock valuations, it's not a stand-alone metric that you should use to determine when to buy or sell. When asked about the Buffett Indicator and another favorite metric at Berkshire's 2017 annual meeting, Buffett said that, "It's just not quite as simple as having one or two formulas and then saying the market is undervalued or overvalued."
With that in mind, the fact is that the Buffett Indicator is at its highest point in history -- meaning that stocks have never been valued as high as they are now in terms of market cap to GDP. While this indicator doesn't necessarily mean that the tides will turn anytime in the near future, it may be a smart idea to start thinking a little defensively.
<<<
Recent BRK.B News
- Nike Shares Surge 7% Pre-Market as Elliott Hill Becomes CEO; FedEx Shares Tumble 13% After Profit Miss • IH Market News • 09/20/2024 10:02:58 AM
- Microsoft Boosts Share Buyback, Raises Dividends by 10%, Intel Secures Chip Deal with Amazon • IH Market News • 09/17/2024 10:40:35 AM
- Intel Secures $3.5 Billion Subsidy, Stellantis Backs EU Emissions Targets, BP and Apollo Reach $1 Billion Deal • IH Market News • 09/16/2024 10:03:27 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/14/2024 12:02:17 AM
- OpenAI Unveils Strawberry AI Model Series; Boeing Stock Falls 4% Amid Strike; HR Surges 20% on Growth Forecast • IH Market News • 09/13/2024 10:12:55 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/12/2024 01:26:55 AM
- GameStop plunges 11% on stock offering, DJT drops post-debate, GSK fails shingles vaccine trial • IH Market News • 09/11/2024 10:25:41 AM
- Broadcom Down 10% Post-Earnings, UiPath Up 8%; Qualcomm Eyes Intel Assets; Salesforce Acquires Own Company • IH Market News • 09/06/2024 11:59:00 AM
- Nvidia Subpoenaed by DOJ, Athira Pharma Shares Plunge 71% After Study Fails, Zscaler Falls 15% Post-Earnings • IH Market News • 09/04/2024 09:50:25 AM
- Intuitive Machines Soars 18% on NASA Contract, Intel Considers Splitting Operations, Dell Reassesses Selling SecureWorks • IH Market News • 08/30/2024 10:00:08 AM
- High Volatility Expected in Nvidia Report, Ambarella Soars 20%, Hertz Strengthens Board, Apple Cuts Jobs • IH Market News • 08/28/2024 09:50:36 AM
- Berkshire Reduces Stake in BofA, Hawaiian Airlines Soars 10%, Paramount Receives $4.3B Offer, and More • IH Market News • 08/20/2024 09:56:02 AM
- Deutsche Bank Faces Shareholder Backlash, Bank of America Sponsors 2026 World Cup, Quanterix CEO Buys More Shares • IH Market News • 08/16/2024 10:03:21 AM
- Google Mandated to Modify Play Store, Apple Innovates, Victoria’s Secret Hires CEO, Mars Buys Kellanova • IH Market News • 08/15/2024 10:05:46 AM
- Google Forced to Modify Play Store, Apple Innovates, Victoria’s Secret Hires CEO, Mars Buys Kellanova • IH Market News • 08/15/2024 10:05:46 AM
- Form 13F-HR - Quarterly report filed by institutional managers, Holdings • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/14/2024 08:05:02 PM
- UBS Beats Earnings Forecasts, Intel Divests Arm Holdings, Flutter Surges 9% in Premarket Trading, and More • IH Market News • 08/14/2024 09:56:35 AM
- Dell Stock Slide Offers Opportunities; Trump and Musk hold talks on X; GM Restructures China Operations, and More • IH Market News • 08/13/2024 09:43:49 AM
- Intel Sued by Shareholders; JPMorgan Raises Chance of Recession; Roblox Blocked in Turkey; Micron Resumes Share Buyback • IH Market News • 08/08/2024 09:48:43 AM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/05/2024 06:44:32 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 08/05/2024 10:05:01 AM
- Nvidia AI Chip Delays, Mars Eyes Kellanova Acquisition, Berkshire Hathaway’s Cash Surge to $277 Billion • IH Market News • 08/05/2024 09:43:55 AM
- AMD Shares Surge 9% on Earnings Beat; Match Group Rises 10%, Pinterest & Lemonade Drop 13%, and More Earnings Updates • IH Market News • 07/31/2024 09:59:10 AM
- Johnson Controls Division Sold for $8 Billion; Alphabet’s Offer Rejected by Wiz; AMD President Announces Retirement • IH Market News • 07/23/2024 10:00:52 AM
- Microsoft and Apple Exit OpenAI Board, TSMC Exceeds Forecasts with Record Revenue, and Other Key Updates • IH Market News • 07/10/2024 10:42:17 AM
VHAI - Vocodia Partners with Leading Political Super PACs to Revolutionize Fundraising Efforts • VHAI • Sep 19, 2024 11:48 AM
Dear Cashmere Group Holding Co. AKA Swifty Global Signs Binding Letter of Intent to be Acquired by Signing Day Sports • DRCR • Sep 19, 2024 10:26 AM
HealthLynked Launches Virtual Urgent Care Through Partnership with Lyric Health. • HLYK • Sep 19, 2024 8:00 AM
Element79 Gold Corp. Appoints Kevin Arias as Advisor to the Board of Directors, Strengthening Strategic Leadership • ELMGF • Sep 18, 2024 10:29 AM
Mawson Finland Limited Further Expands the Known Mineralized Zones at Rajapalot: Palokas step-out drills 7 metres @ 9.1 g/t gold & 706 ppm cobalt • MFL • Sep 17, 2024 9:02 AM
PickleJar Announces Integration With OptCulture to Deliver Holistic Fan Experiences at Venue Point of Sale • PKLE • Sep 17, 2024 8:00 AM