Sunday, July 29, 2018 5:50:00 PM
High for the year was in January...could be right...
I did some updating of Dennis Slothower...The Big Picture of Today...on the Intro page...
July 25. 2018
I think we are going to find that corporate earnings actually peaked in the first quarter, that the surging dollar in the second quarter will have slowed earnings growth from the previous quarter, and that the third quarter will slow even more.
The trade wars will also impact corporate earnings, the strong dollar, and the vast majority of stocks. I think the January highs will likely still be the highs for the year.
The bulk of the growth in S&P 500 earnings in the first two quarters have come from one sector — Energy. It dwarfs all other sectors at 145.3% for the quarter.
When Trump came into office, a barrel of oil was approximately $44 and reached $75.27 early this month. This is a 71% increase in the price of oil.
This is where the S&P 500 growth has come from. It is oil-manipulated prosperity, not real economic growth. Remember, energy prices represent an expense for most companies.
Oil production is soaring. The state of Texas is about to surpass Iraq and Iran to become the world’s number 3 oil powerhouse!
U.S. crude oil output is now hitting 11 million barrels a day, the most in history. We are swimming in oil, just as the weather cools into the second half of 2018.
Daily SPX
USO...oil
About 5 months ago he also said...
We are now close to the Minsky moment when a sudden collapse of asset values is part of the credit or business cycle and that comes when all technical supports are breached and sell stops are triggered on margined positions.
Imagine what a persistent bear market would be like in a full mauling, where primary supports are violated with great force and program trading bots automatically unload waves and waves of sell programs, triggering margin calls on the largest amount of capital on margin in recorded
history. As the market begins to crash, mutual funds are forced to liquidate positions by panicky investors on each down wave, especially in the ETF funds. We know the conditions are such
that it can happen fast, we just don’t know how fast! Yet, it doesn’t take much imagination to figure this one out.
(...nothing to it...right...?...kiy)
I did some updating of Dennis Slothower...The Big Picture of Today...on the Intro page...
July 25. 2018
I think we are going to find that corporate earnings actually peaked in the first quarter, that the surging dollar in the second quarter will have slowed earnings growth from the previous quarter, and that the third quarter will slow even more.
The trade wars will also impact corporate earnings, the strong dollar, and the vast majority of stocks. I think the January highs will likely still be the highs for the year.
The bulk of the growth in S&P 500 earnings in the first two quarters have come from one sector — Energy. It dwarfs all other sectors at 145.3% for the quarter.
When Trump came into office, a barrel of oil was approximately $44 and reached $75.27 early this month. This is a 71% increase in the price of oil.
This is where the S&P 500 growth has come from. It is oil-manipulated prosperity, not real economic growth. Remember, energy prices represent an expense for most companies.
Oil production is soaring. The state of Texas is about to surpass Iraq and Iran to become the world’s number 3 oil powerhouse!
U.S. crude oil output is now hitting 11 million barrels a day, the most in history. We are swimming in oil, just as the weather cools into the second half of 2018.
Daily SPX
USO...oil
About 5 months ago he also said...
We are now close to the Minsky moment when a sudden collapse of asset values is part of the credit or business cycle and that comes when all technical supports are breached and sell stops are triggered on margined positions.
Imagine what a persistent bear market would be like in a full mauling, where primary supports are violated with great force and program trading bots automatically unload waves and waves of sell programs, triggering margin calls on the largest amount of capital on margin in recorded
history. As the market begins to crash, mutual funds are forced to liquidate positions by panicky investors on each down wave, especially in the ETF funds. We know the conditions are such
that it can happen fast, we just don’t know how fast! Yet, it doesn’t take much imagination to figure this one out.
(...nothing to it...right...?...kiy)
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