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Friday, July 27, 2018 5:57:47 PM
Not disputing anyone's analysis but I look it is as:
Page 25 of the FS says $284 million/yr of free cash flow. Let's assume that was correct when it was written. We know the schedule has been compressed some. We know the price of Ti and Nb are up some. There will be some dilution. For nice round numbers and easy math, let's just say: Three years to repay the loans, After that about $300 million a year distributed to 300 million shares. I believe just about any investor would gladly pay $10.00 a share for stock that pays $1.00 a year dividends. I suspect a lot of investors would pay $20.00. To me that all seems clear. But the big unknowns:
When does the investing public begin to believe it will flow 300mil/yr? Soon after construction begins or when it starts to produce and sell product? The stock will certainly go up significantly with financing and construction. But, it will not go to it's full value until a significant number of investors believe.
It they announce the mine will operate for 50 years instead of 32, there will be a big reaction. How big?
Same with production of other REE's.
Will there be 600 million shares out instead of 300 million?
What will the Sc market price be? Maybe actually $4000/kg?
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