Zalcberg's Projections in the Oct 2013 Seeking Alpha article. Obviously Year 1 is not 2014 anymore. It has been pushed back:
QUOTE:
Outlook
I (Zalcberg) did a five-year sales projection for Arrayit starting with 2014. Even after keeping a conservative outlook, I get impressive numbers at the end of year 5 or 2018. By the end of 2018, I expect Arrayit to generate sales in excess of $225 million. The sales projection is based on outlook for five of Arrayit's products/tests; AllergyAdvisor, Animal Allergy, OvaDx, Parkinson's Disease and Excalibur.
Annual Sales
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
$ 8,544,750
$
33, 078,750
$
75, 430,500
$
140, 025,750
$
225, 897,000
Sales by Test
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Excalibur
$ 4,110,000
$ 19,818,750
$
49, 657,500
$ 96,866,250
$ 164,385,000
AllergyAdvisor
$ 1,374,750
$ 4,680,000
$ 8,658,000
$ 10,939,500
$ 11,232,000
Animal Allergy
$ 660,000
$ 1,980,000
$ 2,835,000
$ 4,140,000
$ 6,120,000
Ova DX
$ 1,200,000
$ 3,120,000
$ 5,520,000
$ 10,800,000
$ 18,240,000
Parkinson's
$ 1,200,000
$ 3,480,000
$ 8,760,000
$ 17,280,000
$ 25,920,000
Total Revenue
$ 8,544,750
$ 33,078,750
$ 75,430,500
$ 140,025,750
$ 225,897,000
The sales projection is based on the following assumptions.
AllergyAdvisor
Direct-to-Consumer product with attractive price point for the general public
An estimated 50 million Americans - 16% of the population - have some sort of allergy
In most people, allergies first appear in infancy or childhood.
Assume test will be ordered by 1% of US families with school-age children
Market via TV spots in top 15 geographic/demographic metro areas - a new metro every quarter
Animal Allergy
The number of household pets in the US is estimated at 164 million.
Up to half of all household pets can suffer from allergies - most common are fleas, pollen & food
Assume 7% of allergy tests from animal allergists will be ordered from Arrayit.
Ova Dx
Currently no test available to detect ovarian cancer until Stage 4
According to American Cancer Society, 22,250 new cases of ovarian cancer will be diagnosed in US
14,000 women die from ovarian cancer every year - 5th highest cause of cancer death in women
Currently over 180,000 women in the US diagnosed with ovarian cancer
Assume 25% of family members with history of diagnosis will pursue Ova Dx test.
Parkinson's Disease
Estimated 10 million people world-wide living with Parkinson's Disease
60,000 Americans diagnosed with Parkinson's every year
Thousands go undiagnosed every year
Assume 33% of population diagnosed will have test prescribed
Assume approx. 10,000 test/yr for patients exhibiting symptoms
Excalibur
Excalibur has two revenue streams - the equipment and the test itself
5 billion prescriptions are filled in the US annually
Assume medical professionals will prescribe Excalibur test for .0025% of their prescriptions
Assume medical professionals with Excalibur equipment order test an average 10 times/mth
