Alunbrig superior to Xalkori in 1st-line ALK-positive NSCLC from interim data released today. Takeda's CEO has stated Alunbrig has the potential to achieve peak annual sales of over $1 billion. Alunbrig will compete in the 1 st line setting not only w Xalkori but Novartis' Zykadia and Roche's Alecensa too.
This is interesting in several fronts.
First, JT said at the Jefferies CC, pozi in NSCLC ex20in mutations is ~ 5.5% of the population whereas ALT mutation is around 4% (i.e. that’s 37.5% more pts). So from that angle, all things being equal in the different indications, pozi would pull in more sales for ex20in than Alunbrig would for ALT.
Secondly, Takeda shelled out to $5.2B for Ariad in early 2017 which had Iclusig on the market for leukemia and brigatinib (Alunbrig) in clinical trials. I don't know what type of sales Iclusig has now but back in 2015 it did $112.5M in global sales. And I recall right before it was acquired Ariad was getting bad press for big increases in the price of Iclusig, a drug that can cause heart problems, including heart failure which can be serious. So right now I would say that good thing Takeda got Alunbrig in the deal even though when they bought Ariad, I don't think Takeda was sure what they had in Alunbrig.
Third, there's 4 drugs competing in the ALT indication whereas w pozi, it will be front and center for ex20in mutations, and by itself, for a long while.
And lastly, Spectrum does pull in a $100M in sales every year w their current marketed drugs. And Rolontis will be approved next year and will make much more than $100M.
So the market value of Spectrum right now is ~2.25B. If you think that Spectrum is worth what Ariad was bought out at, or 2.3 times more, than it would cost the acquirer ~$51. If you think Spectrum is a better acquisition than Ariad than it would cost considerable more than $51 per share. I am in the latter camp but we'll know for sure come Sept when pozi data comes out because then, I'm pretty certian an acquirer won't be able to say, we don't know what we have in poziotinib.
