Geron Corp (GERN)

[Dickmo]

If truth be told, I play the Mr. P&D role on another board for a business that has nothing to do with pharma. In my case, I believe management is out solely for themselves. I argue with the denizens of the chat board. They hate me. The only problem is that my forecasting record in running 90% true on company actions. I know those weasels and I know people who know them.

In this case, the facts are such that there are so many ways for a drug to fail. Even going from where Geron is today to having the drug widely available across the country is probably another half dozen major hurdles. To win the game, a company has to successfully navigate all of them. Not 5 of 6. All 6. The probability of success changes as each hurdle is completed.

In the end, the stock price is nothing more than a scorecard on the probability that all 6 hurdles are completed successfully. If the financial world existed solely of longs, then it would force every investor to have an educated opinion of the company's probability of success. I'll bet 80% of America can't name both their senators and their Representative in Congress. But we have shorts to keep things honest. At times, things skew too optimistic or too pessimistic. When they get too extreme, this creates opportunities. But in the end, this is a game played by others. We are just speculators on the final score.

Short sellers have their place. And yes, they can be obnoxious at times. But even rodents and cockroaches have a role in nature. That's why I would reserve the Iggy designation for personal attacks and outright fabricated news. Until that happens, all's fair in my book.