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GRAIL Averages and a sequence of triggers...

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kiy   Sunday, 07/22/18 08:39:12 PM
Re: DoubleTop post# 391
Post # of 426 
GRAIL Averages and a sequence of triggers...
Grail Averages 3day (green line) cross 5 day average...3day cross 10 day average...simple...triggers...

PRICE is the one and only indicator...it sets the other indicators in motion...especially when CCI and Stochastics are both oversold or overbought.

When these 2 indicators are both oversold or overbought= There is a sequence of triggers... price moves above the 3 day average and if sentiment has changed while the 2 indicators are oversold like FCX =is right now trying to make up its mind if it will bury itself in oversold or come out of oversold...I'd be a buyer of $16 tomorrow if the indicators were setting up= ready for the sequence of triggers. Simple game of chess I'm looking 4-5 moves ahead...if those trigger are not happening I step aside or learn patience...

Price reverses from down to UP...
You will see price lifting the 3 day average where eventually price is above the 5 day average and the 3day averge it trying to cross the 5 day average= a Grail average trigger...

...IF you get more buying interest then price will continue to lift the 3day average to have the 3 day cross above the 10 day...
...it is right here where I say TRENDS are born or price is already trending=the Trend is your friend.

The CCI 20 and the stochastics 10,3 usually trigger before the 3day cross the 5 day= CCI said buy me and a cross of the 3day above 5day=confidence improves and when I have stochastics on my side=more confidence...these averages fail you just step aside.
More follow through is price crosses above the 10 day average and will lift the 3day above the 10 day=more confidence ...I can sleep at night...

In my mind of 3 neurons...20 day average is nearterm/shortterm average= there are trading 20 days a month.
50day average can be intermediate term...(actually imo 60 is the real intermediate= 3 months of trading...) Many people follow the 100day average= about 6months of look back and price action= longer term.

Moon cycle often comes with one High and one Low per month.
Double tops I want each top to be at least 3 months apart...

I am more interested in seeing both the 20day and 50day both overbought or oversold= with triggers and signals at trigger lines your position can be larger...
CCI will usually be the first to signal at it's signal line and then the stochastics 10,3...
Goal is at least 10% gain...I trade FCX all the time and YOU TAKE What The Market Gives YOU...usually its better than 10%=$300+ profit on 300 shares...anywhere from 10% to 30%= as a swing trader...I'm more than happy...I can retire on trading FCX...if I had 3 stocks that I like along with FCX I can use all the profits from them (the Market's money) to buy the penny...speculative stocks...its a game...Swing Trading.

FCX copper and gold... a bull market usually has a dome of copper above it.
MACD 3,5,0= 3day cross 5day...what where CCI 20 and stochastics 10,3 doing before this Grail trigger happened...?...

Grail Averages...if you don't know where you're at how will you know where you're going...?...if you don't know how you got to this PRICE level; how will you know when change is happening...?...

Just because the CCI 20 or some other esoteric indicator has signaled a change from overbought/oversold (sell high/buy low)...it only means that maybe the daily chart is waking up from an OVERSOLD/OVERBOUGHT level... you need some more confirmation=3cross 5day average... the smallest SETTING you should use on your charts is 3= that's a rule...3=like the stochastics 14,3 default setting or the 10,3 stochastics setting I use.
Anyway...the Key to the "GRAIL" simply is: the only way you are going to get this smallest of small indicators = the 3day average to change direction with oversold levels ...is price has to continue to move above the moving average to lift the 3 day average UP. YOU ARE NOW AN EXPERT =MASTER TRADER...TRY NOT TO COMPLICATE IT.
And sometimes when I say the move is weak or failing = price action around the 3day average=no confirmation...3 isn't going to cross 5 day average...

Moving averages...Moving average CONFLUENCE...
ALL of These averages are important...I'll show you why...
Moving averages are one of the most popular types of technical indicators...used in a variety of different ways to help find winning. Most have seen and understand the 20/50/200 day averages...I'm going to use the 10/50/100 day averages in this example but some may want to use the 20 and 200day instead of the 10 and 100day.
Moving Average Crossovers
By plotting two moving averages - a short-term moving average and a long-term moving average - you can get strong trading signals when the short-term one crosses the long-term one because this often signals a change in trend. Patience would wait for this crossover because it would be to your advantage to wait rather than tie up your funds "wondering" when or IF that crossover will ever happen. Often patience has its advantages by waiting for the signal...front running comes with added time and risk...
Moving Average Confluence
Another way you can use moving averages is by plotting three or four of these on your chart and then waiting for them all to come together. So if you use 5, 20, 50 and 200 period moving averages, for example, you want to wait for them all to be closely bunched up against each other because this often indicates a period of consolidation, and more importantly that a strong breakout is about to occur. So wait on this confluence...
Moving Averages As Price Targets
If you are a long-term trader you can also use long-term moving averages as natural price targets, particularly when trading price reversals. The 200 day moving average (simple or exponential) often acts as a magnet as well as a natural support or resistance level, so it makes sense to think about exiting a position close to this moving average.
Now with these definitions we can look at the process on the chart and also note VOLUME speaks VOLUMES...
I want all those averages on my side...means I want the 10/50/100 day average all "POINTING" the same direction=trending...and then I want to read "Price relative to VOLUME" as price crosses those averages... and as the moving averages cross each other= some VERY powerful trades are happening here as price and AVERAGES act right=cross...this is where fast money is made in options=especially when "VOLUME" happens along with these kind of SIGNALS. So it is to your advantage to practice waiting for these signals to work for you...you don't have to front run it either...just wait for the signal...then put you money to work...10% plus is almost a given if you act right and wait with patience...(go ahead try to prove that statement wrong=10% plus). Waiting is part of the plan...PATIENCE...follow the plan...
Random Dots...
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p40345227542&r=1368109877760

Add some INDICATORS that indicate where you're at...
Above below the 10day moving average...
If you don't know where you're at how you going to know where you're going...
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p92415003000&r=1368110194937

3Day Average...ADD a faster average as a trigger...
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p27941079294&r=1368110419704
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p27941079294&r=1368110419704
Price is the best indicator=indicates direction...turn price into an indicator(connect the dots)...cross some other indicator confirms change in direction...obvious change change most everyone can see...IF you know what to look for...
Chart price and moving averages ...Starting to look a whole lot like that MACD indicator...isn't it...Chart indicators and lines on the price chart are also indicators helps you KNOW Where You're AT...until it prints on the chart it didn't happen...
https://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p81760193940&r=1368110692344

Grail Averages 3day (green line) cross 5 day average...3day cross 10 day average...simple...triggers...




Follow moving averages. Moving averages provide objective buy and sell signals. They tell you if the existing trend is still in motion and they help confirm trend changes. Moving averages do not tell you in advance, however, that a trend change is imminent. A combination chart of two moving averages is the most popular way of finding trading signals. Some popular futures combinations are 4- and 9-day moving averages, 9- and 18-day, 5- and 20-day. Signals are given when the shorter average line crosses the longer. Price crossings above and below a 40-day moving average also provide good trading signals. Since moving average chart lines are trend-following indicators, they work best in a trending market. http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:john_murphy_s_ten_laws_of_technical_trading

A crossover is the most basic type of signal and is favored among many traders because it removes all emotion. The most basic type of crossover is when the price of an asset moves from one side of a moving average and closes on the other. Price crossovers are used by traders to identify shifts in momentum and can be used as a basic entry or exit strategy. As you can see in Figure 1, a cross below a moving average can signal the beginning of a downtrend and would likely be used by traders as a signal to close out any existing long positions. Conversely, a close above a moving average from below may suggest the beginning of a new uptrend. (For more, see: How are moving averages used in trading?)
Moving Averages: Strategies https://www.investopedia.com/university/movingaverage/movingaverages4.asp#ixzz5M1togpm7


Fade the Primary Trend Using Two Simple Moving Averages
Locate stocks that are breaking out or down strongly
Select two simple moving averages to apply to the chart (ex. 5 and 10)
Make sure the price has not touched the 5 SMA or 10 SMA excessively in the last 10 bars
Wait for the price to close above or below both moving averages in the counter direction of the primary trend on the same bar...
https://tradingsim.com/blog/simple-moving-average/
For gauging price momentum in the very short-term (a period of several days), we have found the 5 and 10-day moving averages work very well. If, for example, a stock or ETF is trading above its 5-day MA, there is usually no good reason to sell. One possible exception is if the stock or ETF has made a 25-30% price advance within just a few days.

The 10-day MA is a great moving average for helping us ride the trend with a bit more “wiggle room” than provided by the ultra short-term 5-day MA. http://www.morpheustrading.com/blog/10-day-moving-average-support/

5day cross 8day...many people use this average crossover...
For trend traders, no stocks or ETFs should be sold while they are still trading above their 10-day moving averages following a strong breakout.

I have followed the rules exactly. Its certainly not holy grail but it has made me some nice pips over the last few months.

I use the 5 EMA and 8 EMA crossover on the daily chart. For the stop loss I use the low or high for the previous day (depending on if we are or short). Alternatively if this is too close or too far away, so the risk/reward ratio would be too low, I draw fib lines on the daily chart and trendlines to try and pickout important support and resistance points and place the stops at these. I always give priority to points where the market has bounced previous. I usually place the stop just above or below these points. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=44759
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What I was implying was that we have all thought at one time or another we found the Holy Grail...only to be disappointed an hour, a day, or a month later.

In my opinion, there is not a Holy Grail in the sense of a single indicator or setup; there is only understanding price action and how to read charts...and that to me is the true Holy Grail.

You can utilize different tools to help understand price action and how to read charts - there is no shortage of indicators and it seems new ones come along on a regular basis. I use candlestick charts and support/resistance in the form of Fibonacci, pivot lines, previous swing highs/lows, and to a lesser extent moving averages.
...most people jump from indicator to indicator, timeframe to timeframe, method to method. They will use something for a few days, hit a bump, and move on to something different all together. One day the holy grail is a XX period moving average, the next day it is MACD or an oscillator. One day it is a 30-minute chart, the next day it is a 5-minute chart. One day it is buying the break of the first inside bar, the next day it is a pullback from the high.

I call this "chasing success". http://traderx.blogspot.com/2008/10/fibonacci-lines-indicators-and-holy.html
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The Triple Moving Average System https://www.stockdisciplines.com/triple-crossover-system



Grail Averages

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