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rsh

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Alias Born 04/28/2015

rsh

Re: LovinLife2 post# 19627

Friday, 07/20/2018 2:04:29 PM

Friday, July 20, 2018 2:04:29 PM

Post# of 26233
The scalability issue.
My recollection from back in early 2015 was that the North Vernon plant (the only one at that time) could only produce 3 MW (i.e. ~3000 Mills) of Solar Mills per month (max). And if memory serves that required 3 shifts per day. So a normal 1 shift day would only have been able to have made and shipped 1 MW of Solar Mills per month. I know that Hyderabad started off relatively small but, at startup, had contracts for 1 year's worth of Solar Mills. I don't know how many people that was. But it would seem that they have had the ability to increase production over the past few years a little but I do not think they could deliver much of a multiple of the above numbers. Based on the above numbers 186MW would have taken 62 months worth of production with 3 shifts per day going full steam without stoppage (which cannot happen). So, using guesstimates, even if Hyderabad were able to produce, say 10MW per month (and that is an absurdly high estimate) it would take 18.6 months to manufacture and deliver 186MW of Solar Mills running 3 shifts per day!

So it is clear that ramping up manufacturing to be able to meet the demand of just 186 MW is a real challenge and likely requires a year and a half or more to do it. If new manufacturing facilities are to be built, then add on more lead time! And I have not even addressed the supply issue. That means that all of the suppliers of bearings, generators, rotors, inverters, controllers (i.e. all of the electronic components) and so on, must ramp up as well. Windstream cannot do those parts so other companies are required to get going. There is a lot to all this and I don't know what bottlenecks are in the way. So it is clear to me that there is a hell of a lot to do. Instant gratification is NOT going to be seen in this scenario.

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