Greetings guys. Figured I would post some food for thought, to occupy the mind during times of short manipulation and typical games seen before big stuff.
So 2809 enrollment completed June 5th (at least that’s when I market it in my phone). So they began dosing the last patient on June 5. Per clinicaltrials.gov, the trial is 12 weeks of dosing, followed by 4 weeks of observation.
12 week dosing complete Aug 28 for last patient. 4 weeks of following observation complete then for last patient Sept 25. Coincidentally that coincides almost exactly with the conference they will present the full data for 5211 (they present VK5211 full data Sept 30th per recent PR).
So the Nov call options are trading with the biggest premium, and expire about 7.5 weeks after the obs period is over. That’s going to cut it close (for Viking at least, they are traditionally a little slow (?meticulous)) with data releases. So obviously not now, but maybe in the next month or two when one of these catalysts hits, perhaps around Mid to late sept, there may be a chance to sell Nov covered calls during those times, to gamble maximally on whether their data will follow a pattern of traditionally being released a little slow.
An alternative viewpoint, and more food for thought... it’s ‘perhaps’ not coincidence that they chose to present full 5211 data sets at the exact time when they will have all the meaningful data available for 5809. It’s genius actually. They may be waiting to ship a real partner deal for 5211, to see how strong their lipid data is first. So they will get huge publicity from 5211 and shop partners in the window after presenting the full data set, knowing then exactly what they are sitting on with 5809.
Based on this, I don’t know that the upcoming Aug conf call may be all that meaningful, but who knows.
Based on all this, I am likely gonna add to my position during this short manipulation period, knowing that I can gamble/derisk whatever I add by selling some covered calls against it during the Sept run up catalyst period, and possibly keep all of it as profit if I sell the calls at the right time, and 5809 data comes after the Nov calls expire.
Thinking about market psychology seems more productive at this point than buying into the nonsense being spewed by SA authors.
Best of luck friends, see you on the other side haha
